Dale Earnhardt Jr. sounds more worried about Ford than impressed with Toyota. Speaking on a recent Dirty Mo Media episode, Dale Jr. broke down how the current manufacturer race is changing on NASCAR’s biggest tracks. And while he still sees a path forward for Chevrolet, his opinion of Ford came with a blunt two-word warning: “terminal velocity.”

Dale Jr. Sees Toyota Pulling Away While Ford Runs Out of Answers

Dale Jr. admitted the gap became obvious during the latest Cup race. Toyota cars ran the field, specifically on intermediate tracks where aerodynamics make or break a race.

“The Cup race, Toyota dominated. I was a little surprised at how clear that was,” Dale Jr. said.

He pointed to Kyle Larson as one of the few non-Toyota drivers capable of hanging with them. Even then, as per Dale Jr., Larson was overdriving the car just to stay close.

“Larson maybe was one of the better cars that could get up there in the middle of them, but you could tell that he was driving his ass off.”

The numbers back him up right now. Toyota leads the 2026 manufacturer standings with seven wins already this season. Tyler Reddick alone has five wins for 23XI Racing, while Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs added to Joe Gibbs Racing’s tally. Ford, by contrast, has one win through 13 races, thanks to Ryan Blaney at Phoenix.

“Ford’s got a car that they’ve pretty much gotten the most out of,” Dale Jr. said. “I think they’re at terminal velocity.”

Even RFK Racing, which Dale Jr. said has recently outperformed Penske, has not had enough speed to challenge Toyota regularly.

“So I’m not as hopeful that the Fords find what they need to be able to compete, at least on the mile-and-a-halfs.”

Chevrolet is still in striking distance with five wins, but the company started 2026 with a totally refreshed Camaro ZL1 body, which, per Dale Jr., matters – unlike Ford, their ceiling is yet to be revealed.

“I’m hopeful for Chevy because they got a new car,” he explained. “Once they figure out what this car really needs, I think that they’ll be fine.”

That is the biggest difference, since Chevrolet still has room to improve as teams learn the new body package. While Hendrick Motorsports has had flashes of elite speed through Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, maintaining it has been a problem. And Dale Jr. believes the answers are still hidden inside the setup notebook somewhere.

The bigger issue for Ford, though, is stagnation on a technical level. Toyota improved its engineering alliance and aerodynamic package, and Chevy rolled out a fresh Camaro body. Still, Ford largely stayed put, and the gap has increased quickly – which Dale Jr. thinks is not entirely a bad thing.

“It’s good for the sport that you have manufacturers that have advantages, and that ebbs and flows back and forth.”

That balance has defined NASCAR’s history. Chevrolet was at the top in the 2000s with 13 straight titles. Ford owned NASCAR races during stable rule eras. Toyota, even though it joined Cup racing only in 2007, is now the benchmark team on intermediate tracks.

And Dale Earnhardt Jr. has probably been watching all this closer than most because Chevrolet’s problems hit home for him, too.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s Next Chevy Fight is Happening Inside JR Motorsports

People still associate Dale Jr. with the red No. 8 DEI Chevrolet for a reason. Every big chapter of his career happened with Chevy. Both Daytona 500 wins. The Talladega performance. The Hendrick years. All of it. But the connection didn’t sever when he retired.

JR Motorsports is still tied to Chevrolet, and that relationship matters more now than ever. The team, co-owned by Dale Jr., Kelley Earnhardt Miller, and Rick Hendrick, has become one of Chevy’s biggest development pipelines.

Justin Allgaier is the veteran anchor there. Sammy Smith has been steady. Connor Zilisch and Carson Kvapil keep flashing ridiculous upside. Rajah Caruth is growing fast under the JRM umbrella, too.

Behind the scenes, though, the real advantage is the Hendrick alliance. JR Motorsports gets access to Chevrolet’s engineering tools, simulation work, setup notes, and data streams. That’s not something you walk away from.

Which is why Dale Earnhardt Jr. isn’t panicking over Chevy’s current learning curve. His own teams are dealing with the same aerodynamic changes. The new body package changed drafting behavior, especially on superspeedways, and drivers have talked about airflow getting weird in traffic.

Still, JRM has stayed in the competition part, and that’s important because Dale Jr.’s long-term goal hasn’t changed. He still wants JR Motorsports in the Cup Series full-time. The problem is the price tag since the Cup charters have exploded in value, with some projections pushing future prices toward $150 million. Dale Jr. has already said publicly he doesn’t want to gamble his family’s future just to buy into the series at the wrong number.

So while he’s talking about Ford falling behind Toyota right now, he’s also staring at a bigger question himself: whether Chevrolet can stay strong enough for JR Motorsports to make the jump when the time finally comes.