It’s starting to feel like Denny Hamlin’s year in the NASCAR Cup Series. He’s been the model of consistency all season, with six wins, more than any other driver, and strong performances across every track type. His recent Las Vegas victory not only locked him into the Championship 4 but also showcased how in sync he is with his Joe Gibbs Racing team when the stakes are highest.

More importantly, Hamlin seems mentally sharper than ever. With his new multi-year JGR contract securing his future and the momentum squarely on his side, he enters Phoenix as the most composed and complete contender. Unless disaster strikes, the path to the 2025 championship is his to lose, and after years of close calls, this might finally be the season he gets it done. But now even stalwarts like Dale Earnhardt Jr. are saying it.

Dale Jr. crowns Hamlin

On the latest episode of The Dale Jr. Download, Dale Earnhardt Jr. laid it out: “I feel like pretty impressive to see what he’s done … Blaney blows left front tire crashes out … he’s got to win at Talladega. He’s got to win Martinsville one of the two, right? You’re not going to point your way in …”

Dale Jr.’s spotlighting Hamlin’s grit amid the Round of 8 chaos. Denny Hamlin’s six wins kept him steady, while Blaney’s Vegas tire blowout left him 31 points out, forcing a must-win at Talladega or Martinsville. Logano’s 24-point hole puts Penske in desperation mode; points won’t cut it against Hamlin’s lock-in.

“He’s the best eight teams in the series. He’s in a must win. He’s 31 out but I just … I think he’s got to win … the odds are really against him pointing his way in,” Dale Jr. added. The final eight reps are NASCAR’s elite, where tiny edges decide everything. Blaney’s deficit killed his points path, mirroring Logano’s bind; wins or bust. Hamlin’s consistency shines here, turning pressure into his Vegas ticket to Phoenix.

“Logano’s –24. Blaney is –31. They are both in a bad spot. They both may not get to Phoenix … if a Penske car goes to Phoenix, they are the favorite to win … this is Denny’s year,” Dale Jr. said.

The numbers don’t lie. Penske’s duo risks missing the finale, but if one sneaks in, their Phoenix prowess makes them champs material. Dale Jr.’s “this is Denny’s year” nods to Hamlin’s 60th win and early playoff peril, like his “boy we’re screwed” after New Hampshire. It’s Hamlin’s momentum versus Penske’s threat.

“The Penske cars are so good. New Hampshire very similar to Phoenix … that was the tell-tale of yep, they still got it. When we get to Phoenix, I expect them to be on top … if there’s not a Penske car in the final four, wide open … Denny winning the championship while he’s suing NASCAR,” Dale Jr. wrapped.

Penske’s flat-track speed translates from New Hampshire to Phoenix, signaling dominance. Without them, it’s anyone’s game. Hamlin thriving amid his NASCAR critiques and podcast jabs adds irony to a potential title run.

Dale Jr.’s Hamlin hype flows into his big-picture takes on NASCAR’s win chasers, eyeing who joins the 50-win club.

Dale Jr. predicts win futures for Larson, Logano

“I think Kyle Larson could do it. Maybe Joey [Logano].” But Logano needs regular-season fire: “Joey needs to run better during the regular season.”

At 35 with 37 wins, Logano’s 13 shy of 50, but Dale Jr. sees him hitting 55: “He’ll get to 50 easy… I think Joey lands around 55 wins in his career…” Logano’s staying power? He “doesn’t give a sh*t about nothing but racing,” racing “a ridiculously long” career.

Brad Keselowski’s tougher: “Brad’s at 36… I don’t see Brad getting there. Brad will be lucky to see 40… Brad’s situation, it’s just their team just doesn’t have speed yet.” Larson’s got upside but longevity doubts: “Kyle Larson… Unless something massively changes it… If he wants to race long enough… I think Kyle Larson doesn’t race long enough…”

With 32 wins, Larson’s 5.7 average since 2021 screams potential, but Dale Jr. questions his grind. Chase Elliott’s 21 wins? “Chase Elliott will retire before that’s possible… I think if Chase Elliot wanted to win 60 races and stick around that long, he’d have a shot at it. But I think he would get out before. I think he’s like, ‘Alright, y’all. I’m gonna go hide in the hills of Georgia. Never see him again.’”

This year’s tally, Hamlin’s six, Larson’s three, Logano’s one, ties back to the title grind. Hamlin’s lead and Penske’s warning underscore Dale Jr.’s vision: longevity and consistency crown legends, just like Hamlin chasing his first ring.