In Denny Hamlin’s prediction of driver eliminations in the Round of 16, one name is prominent. That name surprisingly matches Hamlin’s season-leading number of wins – four. That is none other than Shane van Gisbergen, and his victories stand out in an otherwise lackluster season. All his top five finishes came at road courses, and SVG’s average finish of 21.08 is solely because of multiple results outside the top 20 and top 30 on oval tracks. Yet, Dale Earnhardt Jr. still has hope for the Kiwi.

From the moment Shane van Gisbergen decided to move to NASCAR, he was determined. That strong determination led to 8 NASCAR national series wins in just two years. Yet alongside his road course dominance, SVG is quietly progressing on ovals too – and that got Dale Jr. thinking.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a sliver of hope for SVG

Well, the struggles have been bad. Among Shane van Gisbergen’s plethora of misfortunes on ovals, the Monster Mile is an example. Although he started the race in the top ten, the New Zealander had a puncture in his tire that forced him to pit early, ruining any chance of progress in Dover. At the same time, however, SVG has gritted his teeth against his ongoing trend of struggles. That fervor has already yielded results – during the Brickyard 400, he fought his way from 27th to a decent 14th-place finish. This evidence has planted hope in Dale Earnhardt Jr. about SVG’s chances in the Round of 16.

In a recent episode of The Dale Jr Download, the veteran shared his opinion. Shane van Gisbergen has finished 26th and 20th in Darlington, besides a top 10 Xfinity finish there last year. He has never raced in Gateway, although the track’s tight, flat corners sometimes favor drivers with road course experience. Bristol presents the biggest challenge, as SVG finished 38th there last year and grabbed an 18th-place finish in Xfinity. Hence, Dale Jr. is banking heavily on these tracks: “Yes. He can make the round of 12 with a 20th finish at Darlington. Of course. It kind of depends on what he does in Bristol and Gateway.”

Bristol will be a challenge, as there is no real way to prepare for the race other than being in the thick of the action. However, with SVG’s gigantic playoff 22-point cushion, Dale Jr. still thinks there is a chance. He continued, “I think he’s actually decent at short tracks…There is a legitimate opportunity for him to run okay, you know, top 20 or top 15 at Bristol. Honestly, man, I feel like if you can top 20 it in this round, somebody’s gonna knock up.” However, there is always the possibility that SVG will crash out just like his other ventures. Hence, Dale Jr. summed it up with a balanced verdict: “It’s not a knock on SVG, but if he doesn’t make it, it’ll be by the slimmest of margins…He barely misses it.”

While his fate looks uncertain for the 2025 playoffs, SVG can celebrate a massive milestone.

Another first for the Kiwi speedster

Ever since Shane van Gisbergen entered NASCAR, he has taken the sport by storm. The Kiwi won the 2023 Chicago Street Race on his Cup Series debut, marking a first since Indy car driver Johnny Rutherford did in 1963. This season, SVG rivaled former Cup Series legends Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson when he picked up four road course victories in a row. After last weekend’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, SVG has stamped another milestone for himself. He will be named Rookie of the Year at the end of the 2025 NASCAR Cup season, no matter what happens in the playoffs.

Shane van Gisbergen‘s only competition was Riley Herbst, who had a chaotic season. The 23XI Racing driver lost his final hope in Daytona when he got collected in a crash. At the same time, SVG avoided the carnage, led for 6 laps, and finished in 16th place. This automatically sealed the deal for his Rookie of the Year award – the first foreign-born driver to win it since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2007. SVG reflected on his Daytona race: “It was awesome…We set out and achieved what we wanted to do…I would just get tight and bound up, and I couldn’t stay attached. But when we were out front, it was good. It was good to lead some laps and control some lanes. I learned a lot. We just have to keep building.”

Shane van Gisbergen is clearly on top of the game in many respects. Nevertheless, to live up to Dale Jr.’s expectations, he will need to work very hard.