The thought of Team Penske missing the championship race at Phoenix Raceway seemed nearly impossible until now. But with Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano both at risk of elimination, NASCAR could be staring at a dramatic postseason shake-up. It all boiled down to Las Vegas last weekend, where Blaney had to retire his car in 38th place after a blown tire sent him into the wall, and Logano, who was last in the playoff standings, finished the race in 6th place.

With both championship-winning drivers in must-win situations, Talladega and Martinsville are bound to be extremely crucial for them. And Roger Penske has only one rule: “Like, if you’re running one-two, make sure you finish one-two,” as explained by Ryan Blaney amid talks about Penske team culture. And now Dale Jr. seems to have a plan for them.

Dale Jr. issues a stern warning to Team Penske drivers

Speaking on his Dale Jr. Download podcast, the NASCAR Hall of Famer didn’t hold back on the strategies Team Penske could apply. He said, “Listen, if Blaney and Joey are running first and second with 20 to go, it doesn’t matter who’s where. They’re not going to shuffle one or the other out early. They’re going to need that teammate to stay in those positions all the way to the finish. They’ll work together for the benefit of both until the very end.” He went on to say, “Whatever move you make, it better be the one that wins you the race. If you’re going to take a win from your teammate, you’d better know for sure that move will seal the deal. You can’t cost both of you the race.” 

And that is exactly what Penske may have to do. Depending on which driver is faster than the other, the latter will have to be sure to rack up stage points and aim for the win without jeopardizing his teammates. And this may just work for Roger Penske’s side at Talladega Superspeedway, a venue known for the ‘Big Ones’. They can take inspiration from the New Hampshire race, where working as a team played out perfectly when Ryan Blaney took the checkered flag.

It is no secret that Penske dominated the Round of 12 opener at Loudon, carefully ending Joe Gibbs Racing’s clean Round of 16 sweep. Joey Logano was the pole sitter, while Ryan Blaney started the race in second. However, there was a moment where the two drivers were pining for the win. Joey Logano led a whopping 147 of 301 laps, and the reigning champ also won Stage 2 and settled for fourth. Meanwhile, Blaney claimed the Stage 1 win and managed to lift the lobster.

Reflecting on the New Hampshire run, the No. 12 driver made it more than clear that he would never ruin his teammates’ run. He said, “I feel like we’ve always kind of had a, kind of a, not an unwritten rule, but just a certain understanding of when your teammates are around you and kind of what’s, what’s the procedure…like, great example was New Hampshire. Joey and I raced super hard for the lead at multiple points. Never touched each other. We raced really hard because we knew what it was for, but we never made contact, you know.”

In recent years, Penske has turned the NASCAR playoff into their personal stage. Take the 2024 Phoenix, for example. Even when intense battles between the No. 22 and the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion were ongoing, they still raised each other respectfully without causing incidents. Logano claimed his 3rd Cup Series title while Blaney finished second.

However, with Denny Hamlin storming to Victory Lane at Las Vegas and punching his ticket to the season finale, Team Penske’s Next-Gen dominance is under threat.  Their performances look a little iffy, and Logano sits 24 points below the cut line, followed by his teammate, Blaney, in last place, 31 points below. But if the Ford racers fail to make it to the Championship 4, Dale Jr. has a driver in mind who will take home the 2025 Cup.

Dale Jr. crowns potential NASCAR Cup champion amid Penske failure

Denny Hamlin seems to be Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s favorite recently. And with good reasoning. The 44-year-old clinched his 60th win, tying Kevin Harvick at 10th place in the all-time wins list. And Junior truly believes that this could finally be the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran’s year.

The JR Motorsports co-owner candidly said, “ Everybody feels like that if a Penske goes to Phoenix, they are the favorite to win, and I would agree with that. If a Penske car doesn’t get to Phoenix, I mean, this is Denny’s year. Here it is. Denny was saying after New Hampshire, ‘Boy, we’re screwed. The Penske cars are so good. New Hampshire is very similar to Phoenix. That was the tell, tell of yep, they still got it. When we get to Phoenix, I expect them to be on top.’”

Hamlin sits at the top of the leaderboard heading into Talladega and looks unstoppable. He is also just 16 wins away from the Intimidator’s 76-win record, something Dale Jr. thinks Hamlin can accomplish. Still, that scenario won’t come easily. Roger Penske’s team has dominated the Cup Series championship since the start of the Next Gen era, winning every year and setting the benchmark for consistency. However, the Penske crown has never been in bigger threat than it currently is, and both Logano and Blaney will need to get some clutch results to salvage their season.