Daniel Suarez turned heads ahead of Circuit of the Americas by identifying his former teammate as a serious benchmark, even though Shane Van Gisbergen’s Cup results at the Austin road course hardly scream dominance. Instead of leaning on past finishes, Suarez is focused on how this weekend’s horsepower increase and high fall-off tire could reshape the equation.

With that context in mind, the boost from 670 HP to 750 HP, widely welcomed across the garage, could significantly influence how the race unfolds at COTA. For Suarez, who has already found himself chasing Shane Van Gisbergen on road courses, the added performance element may only complicate that task further.

“I think SVG is going to have an even bigger advantage because he’s very, very good,” Suarez said. “That’s his advantage, you know, the way that he’s able to brake with the clutch and take care of the tires at the same time. So the more fall-off we get on the tires, the more he’s going to excel. So that’s why I think that before we came to this tire, he was good, but he wasn’t dominant.”

At the core of that assessment is tire management. SVG’s edge on road courses largely comes down to how he handles long green-flag runs, consistently preserving his tires while others fade, allowing him to stretch gaps and control races. More horsepower naturally brings higher corner entry and exit speeds, which in turn increase tire degradation.

As a result, that factor becomes even more critical given NASCAR is returning with the same Goodyear tire compound used at COTA last season, a setup designed to promote fall-off and reward drivers who can manage wear effectively.

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Even so, the stat sheet offers a contrasting layer to the narrative. Despite his reputation, SVG has yet to win at COTA in two Cup Series starts. In nine career road course starts overall, however, the three-time Supercars champion has four victories and only one finish outside the top 10, reinforcing why Suarez views him as a serious threat regardless of his Austin results.

Expanding the sample to include street circuits, he has six wins in 12 starts, along with multiple top-10 finishes. Given the current rules package and the Kiwi’s proven efficiency and ability to manage a longer run pace, it is fair to suggest he enters the weekend with a substantial probability of adding COTA to his growing list of road-course triumphs.

However, Suarez isn’t going to give up without a fight. The duo may have had their differences at the Daytona 500, but Suarez’s momentum with Spire, he very well could be a threat. The Mexican’s run at COTA hasn’t been too bad either.

Can Daniel Suarez win the COTA race?

At COTA, the 34-year-old has shown flashes of strong pace despite mixed results. In the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series race at the 2.3-mile road course in Austin, he started inside the top five and ran well through the early stages of the event, even racing as high as third and later fifth before a mid-race incident ended his day prematurely with a 36th-place finish.

That strong opening pace demonstrated that he could contend near the front on a technical road course, even if luck did not go his way that weekend.

Across his five Cup starts at COTA, Suarez holds an average starting position of 9.2 and has led 16 laps, underscoring that his qualifying speed and road course skill put him in competitive positions most weekends, even when race results have been inconsistent.

More importantly, as the Mexican entered 2026 with fresh momentum thanks to a new chapter with Spire Motorsports, he was already off to a promising start. The No. 7 driver scored his first top-five finish for Spire at Atlanta and was consistently running near the lead, a strong start that highlights both his experience and the organization’s upward trajectory.

And now, whether this Mexican bags the COTA win under SVG’s nose remains to be seen.