Two powerhouses of NASCAR, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports, will be seen battling head-to-head for the 2025 Cup Series Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway. For JGR, Phoenix Raceway has been a place of incredible triumph, yet often a frustrating hurdle for the biggest prize. Since the track began hosting the finale in 2020, JGR has consistently placed a car in the Championship 4. Now, the hope lies with Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe.

Hendrick Motorsports will be approaching Phoenix with a legendary shadow cast by their own unparalleled success on the short-flat track. Their dominance has been critical in the Championship 4 era, starting with Chase Elliott’s monumental 2020 performance, and continued by Kyle Larson clinching the championship in 2021. But now, it’s time for Larson and William Byron to put their expertise to the test while trying to reach for the checkered flag. As the field prepares for Phoenix, fan debates are heating up following performance charts circulating on social media.

JGR and HMS returning to the championship summit

The radar visualization breaks down key competitive metrics such as short and long-run seed, pit crew efficiency, and restarts. Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin lead the field in overall balance, showing strong consistency across most categories, particularly in long-run speed and pit execution. Meanwhile, William Byron’s chart highlights his dominance in road courses and short runs, while Chase Briscoe lags slightly in technical areas, compensating with steadiness on intermediate tracks.

Fan voting reflects a tight race between the frontrunners. Hamlin leads the poll with 37.9%, followed by Larson at 26.8%, Briscoe at 20.3%, and Byron at 15%. Despite Byron’s lower percentage, the data suggests his short-track and restart strengths could make him a dark-horse threat. But success at Phoenix requires a precise blend of consistent speed, flawless pit stops, and exceptional late-race execution on short runs, consistently demonstrated by the eventual champion in the Next Gen era.

Denny Hamlin enters the Championship 4 as the most experienced driver without a Cup Series title. His dominant 6 wins this season, including a milestone 60th career victory at Las Vegas in the Round of 8, prove the speed of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. He recently stated, “It’s just another chance to roll the dice. That’s it. I don’t feel any better or any worse than what I have last year or the year before that or the year before that.”

The concern is his reliability at Phoenix and recurring technical gremlins that JGR has been facing this season, but his sheer speed suggests this could finally be his year. While Kyle Larson, the 2021 Cup Series champion, brings the ultimate pedigree for this winner-take-all format, having won the title at Phoenix already.

His ability to adapt to any car or track is unmatched, and his 1,106 laps led this season are a testament to his pace. Larson’s crew chief, Cliff Daniels, is an absolute master of the Next Gen car setup for Phoenix. However, a slight stumble in the Round of 8 with a late-race issue at Talladega highlights the importance of flawless execution, needed in the Championship 4.

His HMS teammate, William Byron, arrives at Phoenix with arguably the most momentum, having sealed his 3rd consecutive Championship 4 berth with a dominant performance at Martinsville. The 27-year-old’s journey to the finale was marked by ‘heartbreak’ in the two previous playoff races, setting up the ultimate high-pressure scenario.

After a taxing middle round, Byron channeled his focus, stating, “I think our strength is just that we’re fast at all the different tracks. I really don’t see a track that we’re at a big deficit.” Byron has a previous win at Phoenix, and his team’s analysis showed his performance combination. But then came the biggest surprise with Denny Hamlin’s JGR teammate, Chase Briscoe, in the mix.

Now driving the No. 19 car, Briscoe has had a breakout season, leveraging the strength of the JGR alliance. His Talladega win, secured with a last-lap pass and a clutch push from teammate Ty Gibbs, was the ultimate embodiment of his never-give-up mentality. “I honestly would not have won that race without Ty [Gibbs]. I can’t believe I won a superspeedway race,” a tearful Briscoe stated after the win.

While his overall season-long metrics might not match the others, his Phoenix experience is strong: his first career Cup Series win came at this very track in 2022. Now, the only number that matters is the one next to their name on the final lap at Phoenix. But Hamlin has one issue to solve with JGR.

Denny Hamlin battled reliability demons ahead of Phoenix finale

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway is set for an epic showdown. But for Denny Hamlin, this isn’t just another shot at the title; it’s a 19-year mission nearing its breaking point. The veteran, in his 5th Championship 4 appearance, has the speed, experience, and motivation, yet a single lingering problem threatens to derail it all.

“The engine went boom,” Hamlin said bluntly after his Martinsville heartbreak, recalling how his No. 11 Toyota barely made it to qualifying before the smoke ended his race prematurely. It was the latest chapter in a worrying trend. “My concern is that over half the playoff races I’ve had mechanical failures,” he admitted on his Actions Detrimental podcast, pointing to starter, throttle, and steering failures that have repeatedly cost him critical finishes during his playoff run.

Still, Hamlin refuses to let bad luck define his championship bid. His 2 playoff wins, in Gateway and Las Vegas, remind us of his team’s potential when reliability holds. “The ones we haven’t (had failures), we won,” he said confidently. As the Phoenix finale looms, Hamlin insists, “I’m confident this week… Everything is going to be fine.” Whether this optimism translates into a long-awaited title or another heartbreak in the desert remains to be seen.