Team Penske is definitely in a pickle. The championship-winning drivers have found themselves breaking away from the rest of the playoff pack. And it’s all thanks to Talladega. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney started up front on the final stage restart with 17 laps to go, in a good position for at least one of them to win the race. But that win never came.

They fell short on fuel and only managed to cross the finish line at 16th (Logano) and 23rd (Blaney). The No. 22 and the No. 12 drivers have now reached a must-win situation. And with their championship hopes on the line, Denny Hamlin knows exactly where the duo is falling short.

Denny Hamlin critiques Team Penske’s risky Superspeedway strategy

Speaking on his Actions Detrimental podcast, the 60th Cup race winner didn’t hold back in revealing the flaw: ” You know, if we ever get into overtime, 99% of the time, Penske cars will not make it. I know seven overtimes. Nashville is different, I’m talking about on Superspeedways, they cut it. They cut it way, way short. So it and they ended up getting bit by it. They, you know, eventually, eventually the law of averages say that, okay, you can only be short so much before eventually you’re going to catch a caution that’s not going to be advantageous for you and you’re going to it’s going to burn you and, and it I don’t think it changed the I don’t think a Penske car was going to win going into that two laps to go. “

Despite being dominant at Talladega, both drivers were forced to pit for fuel when a late caution sent the race to overtime, a call that cost them track position and any realistic shot at the win. But then Denny Hamlin knows this isn’t the first time that Penske has followed suit on superspeedways.

Just take the Daytona race, for example. Ryan Blaney executed a fuel-only stop and recycled into the top 10 with 16 laps left, yet a multicar incident eliminated the chance to win, just 8 laps short of the checkered flag. While the incident was a wreck, the setup, cutting it close on fuel, and relying on a late stop while in the pack clearly elevated risk. These fuel-only gambles at superspeedways are now routine, and teams like Penske that push the limit become vulnerable when a caution or overtime looms.

In another Daytona outing this year in August, Joey Logano’s No. 22 car made back-to-back fuel-only calls, including one with 45 laps remaining, trying to stretch to the finish. He held a front-row position for a while, but the strategy fell apart when the car spun with 13 laps to go, paving the way to a 27th-place result.

These kinds of scenarios paint the picture that when a car is asked to make it on minimal fuel at a superspeedway, the odds are stacked. The margin for error is tiny, and the law of averages eventually catches up. A late caution or overtime finish leaves no room for error, and Penske has been the one getting caught out.

And now the Penske is in deep trouble. With Joey Logano sitting 38 points below the cut line, followed by Ryan Blaney at 47, the only thing that can save them is either a win or really strong stage points. Martinsville is their only hope of filling out the last two spots remaining in the Championship 4.

With Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe‘s recent Talladega victory, the Joe Gibbs Racing duo has locked in their spot, leaving the Ford in the dust. But maybe Penske’s day could have turned out differently if the Fords had helped them out… and now the 2014 NASCAR Cup Series Champion reveals why that help never came.

Kevin Harvick reveals why no other Ford drivers helped the Penske duo out

Team Penske found itself without much-needed drafting help late in Sunday’s Round of 8 playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway. With no support coming from behind, the inside lane broke apart, causing both drivers to slip towards the back of the field. And now Kevin Harvick is the one who is sounding off about it.

He noted that, considering how strong the Team Penske pair typically is, it wasn’t shocking to see competitors work to keep them out of contention. Speaking on Harvick’s Happy Hour podcast, he said, “I think that everybody knows if they put them in a position to win, they’re going to win. And if they can keep them shuffled and keep them in the middle of the field, that’s going to make the odds of them having that track position and being able to have that work out for him. Guys know when you have the dominant car. And let’s face it, they’re not Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Dale Earnhardt Sr. People don’t want to see them win. And don’t want to be a part of their win.” 

But for Penske drivers, the situation was particularly frustrating because they had potential drafting partners nearby in fellow Ford drivers Todd Gilliland, Ryan Preece, and Brad Keselowski. Blaney even suggested that some of those drivers may have been conserving fuel, which limited their ability to provide a push, but was surprised nevertheless. And now, with the 2023 Cup Series champion sounding off on his chances to win Martinsville, things look more difficult for Penske.

Now, as the NASCAR Cup garage heads towards the elimination round, the Penske driver’s fate is about to be sealed, and to keep their championship hunt alive, the Penske duo will have to win and collect some solid stage points. Only time and fate can tell if Penske lives another day to dominate their long-standing chokehold on the championship.