Denny Hamlin has gotten burned by the playoffs way too many times to be fooled again. The three-time Daytona 500 winner, who has been on the hunt for his first Cup title, faced the hardest blow in 2025 with the elimination-style format that saw him lose his championship to Kyle Larson. However, with the new Chase format in place for 2026, the 45-year-old may not be in the same situation again. But the format has its own set of laws, and Denny Hamlin is definitely treading lightly.

Consistency is the name of the game, and Hamlin knows it all too well. Speaking on which teams would actually make the postseason in the new Chase format, the No.11 driver didn’t hold back.

“It’s the same guys that are favorites every single week. And it’s because those are the ones that are up front every week. That’s who this format benefits,” Hamlin said. “If you couldn’t go on a run in 26 races, you’re not gonna go on a run more than likely in the final ten. So I think it really benefits four or five teams.”

Hamlin offered a direct assessment of the new Chase format. The 16-driver field is determined strictly by points after 26 races, eliminating the possibility of a single win vaulting an inconsistent team into championship contention.

Over more than 2/3 of the season, speed, execution, and week-to-week reliability separate the elite from the rest.

By the time the Chase begins, the contenders are already defined, and historically, only a handful of teams consistently run inside the top five or top 10 over that kind of sample size.

The 10-race chase itself further tells the balance towards the sports heavyweights, as the Joe Gibbs Racing driver notes. With no eliminations and every driver racing the full stretch, the championship becomes a cumulative math problem rather than a knockout fight.

A team averaging a top six finish over 10 races will almost always outscore a team capable of one or two standout performances but plagued by bad finishes.

The format leaves little room for volatility, meaning sustained excellence matters far more than perfectly timed momentum, as NASCAR veteran Dale Earnhardt Jr. has previously noted as well.

Even the points reset reinforces Hamlin’s theory. While the standings are tightened entering the chase, regular season performances still carry weight, giving the top drivers a built-in advantage.

Combine that with increased points for race wins, like from 40 to 55 now, and the format disproportionately rewards the teams that are already dominant on speed charts, stage points, and laps led. Those metrics tend to cluster among the same 4 or 5 organizations year after year.

As the 45-year-old driver suggests, if a driver couldn’t show championship level across 26 races, the odds of suddenly doing so against NASCAR’s strongest teams over the final 10 are slim at best.

And as Hamlin is ready himself to take on the new format, the No.11 driver has been dealing with some grief and has finally addressed his thoughts on returning to racing.

Hamlin returns to racing amid a promise made to Joe Gibbs

Still grappling with the loss of his father, Denny Hamlin admits he is not quite in race mode yet. But that won’t keep him out of the driver’s seat when NASCAR preseason officially begins. The veteran plans to compete next week in the clash, driving his familiar Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

Denny’s father Dennis passed away, and his mother was severly injured in a house fire on December 28, an event that understandably shifted his focus away from the track. However, on Thursday, Hamlin made his first trip back to the JGR shop since November.

The 45 year-old took time to acknowledge the outpouring of support he has received and expressed sincere gratitude to those who reached out.

“The NASCAR family has always been a very tight group, and I appreciate the condolences and the well-wishes and everything from everyone,” Hamlin said. “It certainly does mean a lot,” he said. “I’m OK, as to be expected.”

Despite the circumstances, Hamlin said stepping away from racing altogether was never as planned. The season unofficially gets underway February 1 with the Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, followed by the Daytona 500 two weeks later.

“I’ve considered all options,” Hamlin explained. “I made a promise to Joe and the Gibbs family. Those guys have been working and preparing and whatnot. I’ll be obviously a little bit behind, but I feel like I can catch up pretty quickly.”

With 60 Cup Series victories to his name, Hamlin knows he has some ground to make up after his time away. Still, he is confident he can get back up to speed quickly.

More importantly, Hamlin is ready mentally and emotionally to return to the place that long been home. And next week, he will be back where he belongs: behind the wheel.