“If you leave here in a hole, then you’re now counting on a good Talladega race and you can’t really count on that.” Denny Hamlin is fully aware of the stakes as the Round of 8 kicks off at Las Vegas. From stirring the pot with Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace to reigniting sparks with Ross Chastain, Hamlin is still on the hunt for a 60th Cup Series win; only this time, it means that it could fetch him his first title, and with his recent performance, his probability just got higher.

After sweeping the Round of 16, the Toyotas are again flexing speed and swagger at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Denny Hamlin zipped to the top of the leaderboard at 184.849 mph, snagging his fourth pole of the season and the 47th of his career. Hamlin let the rocket launch as three Joe Gibbs machines locked down the top three, with Chase Briscoe clocking 184.622 mph in second place and Christopher Bell hitting 184.584 mph in P3. This definitely gives the Toyotas an upper hand heading into Sunday’s South Point 400.

Speaking to NASCAR post-qualifying, the veteran driver said, “It’s just there’s not a whole lot of pressure. I’m just gonna try to do the best I can every week, and you know, concerning myself with stage points and strategy and all that stuff just doesn’t matter, and it’s not anything that really I can control, so I’m just gonna try to do the best I can every week.”

“I’m never closed to making any adjustments I need to do as a driver to continue to get better, and I feel like each and every week I learn a little bit of something that I just didn’t know last time, so just that ability to you know ask those questions and, and take that information and do something with it.” 

And Hamlin’s confidence is well earned; he is historically strong at all three semi-final venues, Las Vegas, Talladega, and Martinsville, with nine career wins across those tracks. But here is the kicker: while track position is king at Las Vegas, 10 of the last 11 winners started inside the top 10, but the pole sitter hasn’t actually sealed the deal since Kyle Busch did it back in 2009, the only time it’s ever happened. And Hamlin knows what an LV win would mean.

Denny Hamlin is fully aware of what is at stake this Sunday; his first Cup Series title might just hinge on this. As he put it at Saturday’s media session, “You might as well budget yourself to finish 25th with no stage points. This racetrack (Las Vegas) is certainly the most important… If you don’t win here, you’re going to start working on Martinsville (Round of 8 finale track) right away. If one of us wins, seven of us will be spending more time on Martinsville, where that one has now got an extra week on Phoenix. You don’t really have a two-week advantage; it’s one week.” 

That one extra week could be gold dust in the playoffs. Last season, Joey Logano parlayed his Las Vegas win into a Championship 4 and went on to lift the Cup. But as Joey Logano sends subtle championship 4 warnings and a potential fourth title, he only manages to earn himself a 9th-place starting position.

Amid Hamlin calling out what is hurting NASCAR right now, he doesn’t need to worry about the defending champion as yet. But he may need to shift his focus to their other rivals: the Chevys, who are parked right behind JGR.

JGR to be aware of its Chevrolet rivals amid LVMS dominance

Hendrick Motorsports does what they do best at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Although they didn’t claim the top 3 spots in qualifying, they did perform a 4-5-6 sweep. Right behind Bell sits Chase Elliott in fifth, followed by William Byron and Kyle Larson.

In the past, they have demonstrated exceptional performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, solidifying their status as a dominant force on 1.5-mile ovals. The team’s legacy includes 10 Cup Series victories at the track, the most by any organization, with five of these wins occurring in the last nine events. Additionally, Hendrick drivers have secured 10 finishes in each of the last five races at Las Vegas, showcasing consistent competitiveness.

With all these stats in mind, Hamlin will have to put in the work for a win, as Las Vegas will prove to be a dogfight. Only time and a bit of patience will tell if the Toyotas or the Chevrolets dominate this race.