The 2025 Cup Series season looked like Denny Hamlin’s best shot to lift that Cup trophy, a 20-year dream that couldn’t see the light of day. For quite some time after the finale, fans felt that any morning they could get that retirement shock from the #11. Luckily, that didn’t come. But the fear continues.

Fear about his performance, fear about his age, about his exploited morale. That unlucky pattern Hamlin is famous for has fans worried it could return in 2026 as well.

Fans don’t want the same Hamlin pattern

2025 might have been THE year for Hamlin: six wins, 18 top tens, and 1,024 laps led made this season arguably one of his best. In fact, nothing seemed to stop him until the final caution in the championship race. But his performance without the championship win this season is exactly what fans fear.

“He known for not doing well a year (top 6 in points but not Champ 4) after doing great. He may break this trend this year or go winless,” a fan wrote on social media.

There is a certain pattern that Hamlin has showcased throughout his career. He was close to winning the championship in 2006, finishing in third place. However, the year that followed saw him drop to a 12th-place finish in the championship. While the fans expected it to be a one-time thing, it sadly wasn’t.

He finished 2nd in 2010 and 9th in 2011. Then 3rd in 2014, and another 9th in 2015. The pattern only broke after 2019, as Hamlin has seemingly become more consistent. But does that mean he can carry this form forward?

Plus, his Phoenix pattern is another problem. Out of his last 41 visits there, he’s managed to win there just twice, and his last win was six years ago. But he’s started from the pole four times, and has finished countless times in those top finishes. So close, yet so far.

This year was the closest chance Hamlin had on the title since 2021 (finishing 3rd that year). But the 2026 season comes with questions of its own.

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Can Hamlin dominate in 2026?

“While I’d love to see him finally get a championship, I think 2-3 wins is most likely with top 7 in points if they do full season points (still trying to manifest),” a fan expressed their raw emotions on social media.

Indeed, Denny Hamlin hasn’t had the best time with the current playoff format of the Cup Series championship. He has lost the title by very narrow margins, and heading into the 2026 season, the uncertainty remains.

Moreover, there’s also the ‘pattern’ mentioned earlier. Interestingly, more of his fans seem to be worried about this, other than the more technical aspects.

“Statistically, Hamlin does not have amazing back-to-back seasons. Hamlin would have an amazing season, then fizzle out for four seasons with only 1–3 wins.”

But there is more to this. Hamlin is 45-years-old currently, and age can take a major toll in motorsports. Drivers can lose the resilience and endurance that they had as young racers. In Hamlin’s case, however, there’s more.

His co-owned 23XI Racing recently turned into a three-car operation in the Cup Series. Moreover, they also ended the lawsuit against NASCAR with a settlement. Understandably, Hamlin will be looking forward to investing more time in the team, considering it could be the plan for his future.

With all of these factors, can Hamlin once again put himself into championship contention?

Hope for a championship?

The season only ends after the final race, and only then is the champion declared. Despite all the speculations, fans still have hope for Hamlin.

“Championship. Starts with a fourth Daytona 500. Finishes season with 8 wins. Finally gets the Brickyard,” a user made a strong prediction.

There is a lot that could be in store for Denny Hamlin. Apart from the season he had in 2025, there’s also the possibility of NASCAR finally modifying the playoff format. This could shakeup the field.

The format has been criticized for a long time, with fans claiming that it does not award the most consistent and best-performing driver throughout the year. For example, Hamlin won the most races this season, yet missed out on the title in the final race.

“I’d like to see him win another 500 before he hangs it up. Championship or not, his career is HoF worthy.” Seemingly, fans still have plenty of faith in his performance, but with growing age, his team management, and the infamous ‘pattern,’ it remains tough to speak on his performance in 2026. But that does not hide the fact that Denny Hamlin is one of the most competitive drivers to have stepped into the sport.

At the end of the day, he’s a driver, and winning the championship is his primary goal. No number of race wins or laps led can match the satisfaction of winning the championship, and without a doubt, Hamlin will be after it in 2026.