Another championship heartbreak may be waiting around the corner for Denny Hamlin, and this time, he can see it coming. With two races left in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, Hamlin is watching Kyle Larson turn a once-promising title fight into a desperate chase. The Talladega Superspeedway winner now holds a 73-point advantage, leaving Hamlin with little room to recover. On Actions Detrimental, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver summed up his predicament in five words. 

“We’re all racing for second.”

Denny Hamlin was not saying he would stop trying. He was watching a championship fight that had slipped beyond his control. He still had a chance to win the remaining races, but Larson had built a 73-point lead. With Martinsville Speedway next and Homestead-Miami Speedway hosting the finale, Hamlin’s problem was no longer just a good run. He needed Larson to lose ground, too. And so, Kyle Larson has put Hamlin in a position he never expected.

The contrast with the start of the Chase makes Hamlin’s admission sting. He entered the 10-race postseason as the regular-season champion, earning 2,100 points and a 25-point advantage over the second seed. Larson began seventh, on 2,045 points. NASCAR’s new format was meant to reward performance across the full stretch, rather than decide the championship through elimination rounds or a single winner-take-all race.

For a while, Larson’s championship bid looked far less convincing than Hamlin’s. He had gone 51 races without a win, dating back to May 2025. But the defending champion found his form when the Chase began. Victories at Gateway and Kansas ended that drought, while a run of strong finishes moved him past drivers who had started the postseason ahead of him.

Denny Hamlin could not match that run. Issues kept interrupting his races, leaving him with only two top-five finishes through the first eight Chase events. He still had opportunities to limit the damage, but the points advantage he had earned during the regular season was disappearing. By the time the series reached Talladega, Larson had taken the lead.

Talladega is where the gap stamped itself as an enormous hurdle. Larson entered the YellaWood 500 only five points ahead of Christopher Bell. He had never won at the track, nor had he won at any drafting track in the Cup Series. Yet after dropping as far back as 11th on the final lap, Larson charged through the field and won in overtime, beating William Byron by 0.041 seconds. 

Hamlin had his own battle to survive. A multi-car crash on Lap 131 damaged his No. 11 Toyota and ended the days of several Chase contenders. Hamlin managed to continue, finishing eighth despite the damage. That was a solid recovery, but Larson had won the race. Hamlin secured a respectable finish while his rival collected the maximum reward available for winning and opened a commanding lead.

After Talladega, Larson sat on 2,441 points and Denny Hamlin on 2,368. Christopher Bell was just one point behind Hamlin, with Chase Briscoe another five points back. Hamlin was still second, but the standings offered little comfort when the driver ahead had a 73-point cushion and only two races remained.

Why Denny Hamlin believes the championship fight is almost over

Jared pressed Denny Hamlin on what that gap meant in practical terms. Hamlin explained the points challenge without dressing it up.

“If you win the race, it’s 55 points. You gotta get to 75. You gotta win the race. You gotta get… It’s highly unlikely.”

The arithmetic is what makes the situation so severe. Under NASCAR’s 2026 format, a race win is worth 55 points, while the maximum possible haul is 76. That total requires a win, maximum stage points and the fastest-lap bonus. Even a perfect result from Hamlin would not, by itself, erase his deficit if Larson continued to score well.

Larson’s position is stronger still because he can clinch the championship at Martinsville. NASCAR’s October 28 scenarios show that he needs 59 points there to secure the title regardless of what his rivals do. He does not need to win again. He simply needs to keep scoring, while Hamlin must deliver an exceptional result and hope Larson has a difficult afternoon.

That is why Hamlin agreed when Jared asked whether he was now trophy racing. The goal has changed, even if the effort cannot. Hamlin must still race hard, protect his position, and take every available point. He also pointed out that a mechanical problem could change the picture, so his team cannot afford to give up on the championship prematurely.

But there is a difference between keeping a mathematical chance alive and controlling one’s own destiny. Denny Hamlin can win at Martinsville on November 1, yet Larson could still clinch the title that afternoon. If the championship reaches Homestead on November 8, Hamlin would need more than another strong finish. He will need the points swing that has eluded him throughout the Chase.