Denny Hamlin Makes Uneasy Confession in Raw Message Ahead of Championship Chase

Denny Hamlin is back in the spotlight after securing the pole for the 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, a feat that couldn’t come at a better time. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota turned heads with a blistering qualifying lap of 28.694 seconds. This placed Hamlin ahead of the championship chase field on one of NASCAR’s most legendary and demanding tracks, as the NASCAR playoff season kicks off. But here’s the thing…

Speed on Saturday doesn’t always translate to trophies on Sunday, especially in the playoffs. And while Hamlin’s confidence in his team is undeniable, what he admitted just after grabbing that pole might surprise you. It has all got to do with what really stands between him and another shot at winning the elusive NASCAR championship.

Denny Hamlin’s honest take on his championship hopes

Denny Hamlin’s 2025 regular season has been nothing short of impressive. With four wins (tied with Shane van Gisbergen for the most on the year), Hamlin finished third in both the driver standings and the playoff grid. He’s also stacked up +23 playoff points, giving him a cushion that practically guarantees a deep postseason run. “We’re certainly in the upper echelon of guys that are going to be racing for the championship,” Hamlin said, reflecting the confidence of a driver who knows he has the speed and the team to contend.

But when asked about the Achilles heel of his No. 11 team, Hamlin didn’t hesitate. “Just execution,” Hamlin told reporters during the post-qualifying press session. For a driver who has made the playoffs 19 times, missing only 2013 due to injury, the glaring hole in his résumé remains the one thing that keeps him awake at night. A NASCAR Cup championship.

Execution, as Denny Hamlin explained, often comes down to the variables he and his team can’t control. “It’s all the variables, right, that we just don’t know about. Ill-timed cautions, you pit, green flag cycles, someone crashes coming off pit road and a yellow comes out. It changes the complete complexion of the race.” That unpredictability has bitten Hamlin multiple times in 2025.

The Coca-Cola 600 was a painful example. One of his two fuel cans failed to discharge fuel on the final stop. This left Hamlin short on gas and cost him a potential win. Other mishaps, some mechanical, some circumstantial, have played out in a similar fashion, stealing away races where he had the speed to dominate.

For instance, at the Daytona, Hamlin was involved in a massive multi-car crash during the last lap, right as he was battling for the lead. He was spun in a pile-up that collected several top contenders, ending his race and costing him valuable playoff points, just as he was positioned for a potential win.

Later in the season, at the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas, Hamlin suffered a rare mechanical setback as his clutch stopped functioning during a routine pit stop on lap 197. Forced to retire from the race, Hamlin admitted on his podcast, “That was the first one I’ve lost…it never engaged.” Hamlin then dropped four spots in the standings and endured back-to-back DNFs for the first time since 2013 despite having speed to contend for the win.

As the playoffs begin, Hamlin isn’t worried about pace or pit crew speed. Rather, he’s worried about those small, uncontrollable cracks in execution that can snowball into heartbreak. And until he plugs them, that long-awaited championship will remain just out of reach. Hopefully, with the best possible start to the postseason, Hamlin can finally put his hands on the Championship trophy this year.

Dale Jr. and Denny Hamlin call playoff shockers

As the Cup Series Playoffs gear up for high-stakes battles, both Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Denny Hamlin are teasing early exits for a few surprising contenders. Dale Jr., speaking on his podcast, didn’t sugarcoat his pick of who might be eliminated in the Round of 16. Among those he flagged: “SVG … I do not believe that SVG (will advance).” He also named Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon, and Austin Cindric as likely first-round victims.

Hamlin mirrored much of Dale Jr.’s list during his Actions Detrimental podcast. He, too, cited SVG once again alongside Austin Cindric, Josh Berry, and Austin Dillon. While acknowledging SVG’s accomplishments (four wins and bonus points), Hamlin warned that one bad performance could upend his playoff hopes.

These picks spotlight the harsh reality of Sprint Cup postseason racing. Even top performers from the regular season are vulnerable. SVG’s strength on road courses, for instance, might falter at traditional NASCAR tracks like Darlington or Bristol. SVG’s 20th-place qualification at Darlington justifies Hamlin’s concern, reinforcing why an early playoff exit isn’t far-fetched.

Interestingly, when peers were anonymously polled, many echoed these concerns. Tyler Reddick was cited by five drivers as a likely early out. Yet, SVG didn’t emerge as a consensus pick, reflecting the tight margins and unpredictability at this level.

The early predictions by Dale Jr. and Hamlin cast a spotlight on Supercars–import SVG and other mid-pack racers. It showcased just how razor-thin the line between advancement and elimination can be. As the first round unfolds, these calls may very well set the tone for one of the most dramatic playoffs to date.