It’s locked in! The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway promises a blockbuster finish to the season. As always, it’s going to be four drivers, four storylines, and one defining moment. William Byron and Kyle Larson will carry Hendrick Motorsports’ banner. On the other hand, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe stand tall for Joe Gibbs Racing.

And among the four drivers, for Hamlin, though, this is more than just another title shot. Rather, it’s a mission nearly two decades in the making. Making his fifth final four appearance with six wins this season, the veteran has been in peak form, yet one question continues to linger over his championship run.

As Phoenix week began, Hamlin’s confidence was unshaken, but his honesty was as brutal as ever. In just eight words, he revealed the one concern that could decide whether his long-awaited championship dream survives or blows up in smoke.

Denny Hamlin’s mechanical mayhem

“The engine went boom,” said Denny Hamlin. The nightmare began before the green flag even dropped at Martinsville Speedway, as his No. 11 Toyota needed a push start just to fire for qualifying. “Of course, there’s concern there. My first concern is will my car start?” Hamlin admitted recently, still feeling the sting of this unpredictability. Eventually, his day ended in heartbreak. While running second, smoke billowed from the 11, forcing an early exit when his engine blew.

But this wasn’t an isolated incident. Instead, it was a crushing repeat of misfortune, part of a broader pattern that has haunted his recent playoff run. “My concern is that over half the playoff races I’ve had mechanical failures. So like five of the nine I’ve had major mechanical failures,” Hamlin explained on the Actions Detrimental podcast. And he is absolutely right! From starter problems, power steering issues, throttle jams, to two engine blowouts at critical moments, the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has seen it all this postseason.

This string of setbacks began at Bristol, where Hamlin’s right-front wheel became dislodged. At Kansas, Hamlin battled a power steering failure and a slow pit stop, only to lose by a whisker (0.069 seconds to be precise). Then, at Talladega, a throttle issue caused by debris forced an extended stop and a disappointing 24th-place finish. Finally, Martinsville, with its blown motor, marked a DNF for Hamlin.

Despite these setbacks, Hamlin’s two playoff wins – Gateway and Las Vegas (which locked in his Phoenix ticket) – have provided confidence. “The ones we haven’t (had failures), we won. That’s the good news. They’re (No. 11 team) going to bring their best. I’m confident we’re going to be fine,” Hamlin described an emotional, yet optimistic, approach to Phoenix.

Ahead of the Championship 4, Hamlin acknowledges the unpredictability but remains focused. “I’m confident this week. I’m not negative in any kind of headspace way…Everything is going to be fine.” With a winner-takes-all spectacle on the horizon, the Virginia-native will hope Lady Luck is on his side at Phoenix. It might have been a dominant year for the 44-year-old, but none of that would matter when the green flag drops at ‘the desert oddball’. The question is, will performance and reliability finally align at Phoenix? Time will tell.

Breaking down the odds

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Championship at Phoenix promises a razor-tight four-way battle. And the betting odds closely reflect how evenly matched this year’s title contenders are. Denny Hamlin enters as the odds-on favorite at +375, thanks to a dominant season. Despite the recent mechanical woes, oddsmakers still believe Hamlin’s experience and Phoenix track record of two prior wins and multiple top-fives make him the man to beat.

William Byron trails closely behind at +400 after his pole-to-win statement at Martinsville and a history of consistent finishes throughout the playoffs. Byron is making his third consecutive trip to the final and is fueled by Hendrick Motorsports’ formidable playoff pedigree.

Now, if we take a look at the Hendrick drivers, Kyle Larson sits at +450. The 2021 champion is regarded as Phoenix’s most versatile threat, given his prior championship experience and his team’s fine-tuned playoff execution. He remains the only current finalist with a previous crown.

Rounding out the Championship 4 is Chase Briscoe at +600. Well, he is generally viewed as the underdog after a breakout first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. That being said, Briscoe’s impressive run at Talladega to clinch his berth and several strong Phoenix showings mean he can’t be discounted. However, he lacks the experience and season-long speed of his rivals.

With all four drivers entering Phoenix at the top of their game and having recently won on intermediate tracks, the odds reflect an unprecedented level of parity. While Hamlin has a slight edge with the sportsbooks, this is truly an “anyone can win” finale where strategy and nerves will decide NASCAR’s ultimate prize.