For the majority of the pack, Phoenix was utter chaos. Tires were blowing up left and right, and the drivers were more focused on surviving till the end instead of going for stage points. It seems like the combination of high horsepower with soft tires is actually increasing racing action. So when Denny Hamlin talks about Darlington, he feels like the entire NASCAR garage should know what they are up against.

Denny Hamlin predicts raw carnage at Darlington

Short tracks are already unforgiving. Hence, with the newer cars and their aero package, Hamlin believes that tracks like Darlington are going to be the epitome of chaos:

“One thing I will tell you is that heads up on Darlington; you are going to see some cars out of control here in a few weeks.

“These cars have essentially little to no underbody because now we’re going to the short-track aerodynamic package for Darlington. These cars are out of control. And so we are going to be…I am predicting four seconds of fall-off.”

Hamlin’s predictions are not too far-fetched. The soft Goodyear tires are already causing mayhem with their fall off. Drivers need to be extremely careful with their tire management if they want to race without the fear of crashing out. Not only that, Hamlin also believes that tracks like Phoenix will only witness a marginal increase in racing.

“It’s going to be a small incremental change. Again, the small change, what was racing truly better this time around? Was it 10% maybe? I mean 15, but it’s something. And so, I think you will see the same change at other racetracks.”

In Hamlin’s eyes, the simpler underbody of the NASCAR short-track aero package and the higher horsepower, paired with tires that easily degrade, will throw even seasoned drivers out of control. He considers it a “wild-card” race that can crown any driver as the victor.

The lesser amount of downforce in the NASCAR short-track package leaves the cars with much less grip than usual. Since current-gen cars usually generate a lot of traction, the short track package surprises the drivers with a lack of grip.

The higher power generation of the 2026 NASCAR season will make it much more difficult for the drivers to keep the cars from sliding away. And when the Goodyear tires degrade, the real game of racing to the limits is going to start.

Most of the drivers will be busy figuring out which line is the most optimal. Some other drivers will be trying to minimize tire wear to race hard in the last laps. In these conditions, the driver who adapts best and gets an early idea of the race will be the one who gets the most advantage.

Meanwhile, NASCAR itself is very pleased with how things are progressing so far. It is ready to continue with the current regulations to keep racing action high.

NASCAR reaches sweet spot at Phoenix Raceway

NASCAR Cup Series managing director Brad Moran is happy with what he saw at Phoenix. Not only that, but he also believes that the excessive tire wear is not a problem for the sport. It is just the consequence of racing hard and aggressively.

“I’ll tell you one thing: nobody was disappointed from the team’s side or from our side, the sanctioning body. Yes, we had a nice, soft tire; it wore out. It had great fall-off. The drivers had to drive the cars; they were not as easy to drive. Along with the extra horsepower and the short-track diffuser, it’s kind of all coming together.”

Even Joey Logano praised Goodyear for their tire-strategy that was seen at Phoenix.

“Hard to say what’s affecting it the most, and there’s no doubt that Goodyear’s done an incredible job at bringing a tire that actually falls off. You remember, you’d run a whole run and 3 tenths, 4 tenths slower than what you started. Now you’re seconds off, we’ve come a long, long way. Goodyear’s done the biggest amount,” he said.

With a record 12 cautions this weekend, Phoenix Raceway gave the audience a pretty good look at the type of racing they should expect. There were multiple contacts between drivers, stage breaks, and tires blowing off, leading to cautions.

However, something that should be noted is that the tires were not running at the optimum pressure the entire weekend. NASCAR crew chiefs did not pay heed to Goodyear’s instructions and paid the price. When the cars hit Darlington, these blunders are less likely, but the general racing action will mirror that of Phoenix.