In mid-July, right before the North Wilkesboro race, NASCAR made a rule adjustment to the Next Gen car. The sanctioning body mandated that teams add struts to the front splitter. None of the teams broke any rules, but NASCAR wanted to level out the competition. Back then nobody batted an eye, but now that Toyotas have lost their early-season advantage, people are asking: Did NASCAR deliberately cut down the edge Toyotas had on the racetrack?

Jeff Gluck from The Athletic asked the same question to Denny Hamlin’s crew chief, Chris Gayle. And while he encouraged the discussion behind this sudden change, he doesn’t have enough data to prove that splitter change has hurt JGR Toyotas.

“I’m not going to say this was a Toyota thing because no one from NASCAR has ever said that. I think it’s more in their opinion of haves and have-nots and how do I level the playing field. I’ve never heard anything different than that said. Whether there’s some intent there? If somebody can read between the lines on that one, it definitely hasn’t helped us. But I’m not in other guy’s camp,” Gayle said to Gluck.

This rules package change has become more evident on mile-and-a-half track. Toyotas have absolutely dominated the intermediate track in 2026, claiming 15 of the 25 total top-five finishes in those events. And according to NASCAR’s data, Toyotas have led 891 of a possible 1,448 circuits (61.5%) en route to three checkered flags. Kansas was supposed to be a strong day for Toyotas, but Kyle Larson swept the race with 76 points.

Even when Chase Briscoe had the lead, he couldn’t hold off the No. 5 Chevy. There could be a possibility that Toyotas have been hit worse with this change mid-season. But again, Gayle believes that wasn’t NASCAR’s intention.

“I can’t argue and say that maybe what we were doing or not doing, Hendrick was doing the same thing. And so how do I know how much it hurts me versus them and this isn’t related to everybody continuing to work on their mile and a half stuff… It’s an interesting talking point; all those things are valid, but I don’t think we have enough of a sample size to say that just yet,” Gayle added.

On the flip side, Jonathan Hassler from the No. 12 team feels this change has worked in their favor. “I definitely think they work in our favor. I know we’ve done some other things too aside from that, that are going to make us more competitive. So I’m excited for the opportunity we have with those tracks.”

None of the teams or the crew chief had a clue on how this new splitter change would affect their cars until they got them on the racetrack. Kansas was the first time they got the feel for it. Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 car didn’t have the short-run speed, nor did they have the balance to gain momentum on long runs.

Hamlin and the No. 11 team went from leading 131 laps at Kansas in April, and last week, he only led 2 laps, finishing 3rd. Austin Cindric had a better car than Hamlin, and the performance gap was visible. Now there can be a case that JGR and 23XI Racing Toyotas haven’t tweaked their setups enough to accommodate this new splitter change. But one thing is clear: the competition has caught up with them.

With Las Vegas, Charlotte, and the finale at Homestead-Miami lined up in the Chase, it will be interesting to see how the Toyotas perform. They don’t have a lot of time to experiment as well. Another 70+ points week for Larson and the No. 5 team; Hamlin and the JGR Toyotas will be playing catch-up. And gaining back lost points on rival teams is a tough task in the Chase.