A 67-point lead with one race remaining puts Kyle Larson in control, but Homestead-Miami Speedway leaves no room for complacency. The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team has turned a difficult season into a championship run. Larson does not need to chase a miracle on Sunday. He needs to avoid handing one to his rivals.
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Larson enters the finale 67 points ahead of Christopher Bell and 70 clear of Denny Hamlin, the only other drivers still mathematically eligible. The maximum score is 76 points, leaving Bell with a narrow path that requires a win and a major stage-point haul. Larson needs nine points to clinch his third Cup Series championship, regardless of what either challenger does. Without stage points, a 28th-place finish is enough. At his Homestead media availability, Larson summed up the task in less polished terms.
“Don’t f*** it up at this point,” he quipped about the 67-point advantage, as Jonathan Fjeld reported on X.
That mindset is a long way from where Larson stood before the Chase began at Darlington. He entered the postseason as the seventh seed, 55 points behind regular-season leader Hamlin, after going winless through all 26 regular-season races. He doubted the No. 5 team could contend.
“I really had no confidence—zero—before the Chase. Hope, but no confidence. I would really look at Darlington as the turning point of my confidence,” Larson said, replying to a question by Kelly Crandall. “I know we didn’t win, but I feel like we executed a really good day. We maximized what we had going for us that weekend and that day. I remember leaving that race thinking, ‘Man, that’s the first time it’s felt like the No. 5 team in forever.’ We were calling a race to win.
“I didn’t feel like I had been in that position for a long time. Then we got a good finish, and I was just like, ‘Man, if we can hopefully have some close speed and continue that—strategy calls and execution, we’ll see where it goes.’ Then the following week was Gateway, and again it felt like the No. 5 team of old, and then getting that win and you propel yourself in points, you feel like, ‘All right, we’re legitimately in this now.’”
The results gave that belief something to stand on. Larson finished fifth at Darlington after leading 99 laps, then won at Gateway to end a 51-race Cup winless streak. He followed with a runner-up finish at Bristol after starting from the pole. The No. 5 team was carrying speed from one track to the next.
Kansas provided the most complete performance. Larson swept the stages, led 235 of 267 laps, and won, collecting all 76 available points. It showed the team could dominate, not simply survive. Through the first six Chase races, Larson won twice and finished in the top six each time. That recovery mattered just as much as any individual result.
Keeping that progress was the challenge. Larson has seen confidence evaporate after one poor result, but the No. 5 team avoided that reset. He also saw rival teams struggling with the pressure.
“So often in my next-gen career, like Cup career, you get out this confidence. Like Boom, you have a crappy race, and you’re right back to square one,” Larson added. “But we were just able to kind of build on it all throughout the Chase. I think too, when the No. 5 team is in contention, other teams can feel that pressure, and it seems they kind of caved into that pressure a little bit.”
The challengers left openings. Bell was caught in a multi-car wreck at Gateway, suffered a power-steering failure at Las Vegas, then damaged his car after spinning on pit road at Talladega and finished 35th without stage points. Hamlin, who began the Chase as the top seed, surrendered the lead and struggled to match Larson’s consistency. Larson’s cut tire and DNF at Phoenix also threatened his advantage, but his Talladega victory restored it.
Bell now must win at Homestead and collect at least 14 stage points to remain in contention; Hamlin needs a win and at least 17 stage points. Larson does not have to beat either on outright pace. He needs nine points, a clean race, and no opening for a rival to exploit.
The turnaround began with a team he barely trusted at Darlington. At Homestead, the job is to ensure that confidence does not become complacency.