Only two races remain in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season. With 73 points separating the Top 2, reigning champion and championship leader Kyle Larson already has one hand on the trophy. The next race of the campaign is at Martinsville, a track where he has finished sixth or higher in the last seven of eight visits, including a victory in 2023. So there is a strong chance that Larson could wrap up the title before the finale in Homestead-Miami.

Now, this was the very thing that NASCAR was afraid of. Under the older Championship 4 playoff format, the Cup Series championship was always heading to the final race, no matter what. However, not many people were fans of the ‘Win, and you’re in’ system. So at the start of the 2026 season, NASCAR brought back the Chase, much to many fans’ delight.

The inherent danger of the Chase was that someone could dominate the proceedings. Larson is probably on his way to proving that, and he actually wasn’t the only one. The likes of Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin also dominated a few stretches before the Hendrick Motorsports star took over.

Now, there are a grand total of 152 points up for grabs. After the YellaWood 500 at Talladega, more than half the Chase pack was ruled out of title contention. Now, just seven drivers have a mathematical chance of winning. However, it would take Larson crashing out before the first stage in Martinsville to truly blow the championship wide open. Of course, nobody wishes for that. Additionally, Denny Hamlin would need to win and have the perfect race to overtake Larson.

Recently, Kyle Petty and other NASCAR insiders reflected on this subject on PRN Live’s “Fast Talk” podcast. Regarding the idea of Larson winning the title at Martinsville, Petty had some interesting takes. Quite frankly, he has a feeling that the Hendrick Motorsports star will do it, even though part of him secretly hopes that the title race will go down to the wire.

That being said, he was of the opinion that, as a Hendrick Motorsports driver, Larson should be able to win the title at Martinsville. Co-host Doug Rice agreed with the sentiment, stating that there is an 85% probability that Larson clinches the crown at Martinsville. Then the pressure will be off the No. 5 driver, knowing that he heads to Homestead-Miami as a three-time champion.

Co-host David Styles then chipped in, saying, “For the change that we’ve seen in the way that this championship has decided that every race is important and every position matters. I think this thing is going to be locked up with one race remaining. I think Kyle Larson gets it done in Martinsville. That’s just what you get with this system, so don’t pitch a fit.”

In essence, the general sentiment should be, ‘This is what you all asked for. Are you not entertained?’ It honestly might bring back fears of a Jimmie Johnson-esque kind of dominance. Then again, this is the first season of the Chase, and maybe 2027 will be different. Drivers will take time to adapt to a new format, and there will be an adjustment period.

Of course, NASCAR can be unpredictable at times, but Denny Hamlin will need a miracle. At the same time, he should probably worry about Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell, who is a point behind. His other teammate, Chase Briscoe, is a further five points away. Even the likes of Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick are not too far away.

So while Larson looks like he is running away with it, the battle for the other positions is very close. And well, one incident is enough to flip the script.