The curtain fell on the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 16 at Bristol Motor Speedway with Christopher Bell surging to victory in a nail-biting finish, clinching his fourth win of the season and sweeping the opening playoff round for Joe Gibbs Racing. The Bristol Night Race delivered its trademark chaos, with excessive tire wear and relentless cautions reshaping strategies and fates. Bell’s calculated lane choices and ability to capitalize on a late restart put him back in Victory Lane, while Brad Keselowski’s gamble faded in the final laps. But more than celebrating the winners, the Bristol Night Race was talked about for the heartbreaking elimination of the bottom four.

In the wake of Bristol’s drama, the spotlight shifted to the four drivers ousted from championship contention. Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen (SVG), Alex Bowman, and Austin Dillon, each carrying a season’s worth of expectations, ended up in heartbreak. Let’s break down where each contender faltered, highlight the data separating them from the advancing twelve, and ask: what’s next on their comeback road?

Where it all unraveled for Josh Berry, SVG, Alex Bowman, and Austin Dillon

The eliminated drivers were all plagued by key moments that sealed their exits. Josh Berry’s campaign, once filled with promise, turned disastrous with a Lap 1 crash at Darlington, followed by another wreck at Gateway, and finally, a cockpit fire at Bristol on Lap 75 forced his early retirement and left him with three straight last-place finishes.

SVG, the rookie road course maestro, entered Bristol with a deficit and struggled to adapt on short ovals, qualifying poorly and finishing 26th after grappling with tire management and track position. Bowman, who seemed poised for a Bristol redemption, lost out in the final laps due to bad tire strategy, finishing eighth. His team had only left-side stickers remaining and no new right-sides, forcing him to stay out and gamble on track position. “Being out of tires at the end isn’t good, and honestly, we just played the hand that we could and stayed out,” he said post-race.

Dillon’s hopes faded as he ran outside the top 20 for most of the race, never finding pace or luck, and ultimately finishing 28th. Each driver came into the round with clear goals. Berry seeking top-10s, SVG looking for consistent finishes, Bowman targeting a win-to-advance, and Dillon aiming for solid points. However, missteps, mechanical trouble, and pit miscalculations ultimately added up to disappointment and early elimination for all four.

Statistical snapshot between the eliminated 4 vs the Round of 12 drivers

The difference between the eliminated NASCAR drivers and those moving on to the Round of 12 is stark across critical metrics. Berry posted an average finish nearing 37th for the round, the worst in playoff history since the current format began, never cracking the top 30. SVG’s average came in just outside 28th, hampered by poor qualifying and a lack of oval experience.

Bowman averaged around 22nd, with a single top-10 finish in the round. Dillon’s stats were similarly underwhelming, averaging better than Berry but lacking any top-15 run and finishing four laps down at Bristol. In each race, these four trailed the advancing pack in laps led (zero), stage points, and clean green-flag runs.

In contrast, the NASCAR drivers who progressed regularly posted finishes inside the top 12, led laps, scored stage points, and avoided DNFs. Trends that hurt the eliminated group included short-track struggles for SVG, pit miscues for Bowman and Dillon, and outright mechanical failure for Berry.

Team & strategy blindspots that cost them the playoff shot

Behind the wheel, critical team and crew chief decisions played decisive roles in sealing these drivers’ playoff fate. Bowman’s Hendrick squad was hamstrung by tire allocation. Their call to stay out with used tires in the final laps proved fatal on a night where tire wear dictated strategy.

Berry’s Wood Brothers crew faced a cockpit fire from rubber build-up, exposing vulnerabilities in trackside inspection and emergency responsiveness. Dillon and SVG both suffered from slow pit stops and inconsistent short-run speed. Manufacturer and team support disparities also widened the gap.

SVG’s Trackhouse entry struggled to match the engineering depth and data of established Cup teams, while Dillon’s RCR group lagged in on-track adjustments as the night wore on. Crew chief gambles, such as incorrect tire cycles and missed calls on cautions, left these NASCAR teams scrambling, unable to recover lost track position. This was a stark contrast to Bell’s Joe Gibbs Racing team, which executed a flawless final stop and restart, helping him sweep the round’s final race.

What’s next for them

For Berry, SVG, Bowman, and Dillon, the road to NASCAR playoff redemption starts with honest assessments and targeted improvements. Berry’s focus should be on mechanical reliability and technical feedback, avoiding mid-race disasters and fortifying pit safety after Bristol’s fire.

SVG’s transition from road courses to oval consistency will be crucial. Offseason testing and simulator work may be his best bet. Bowman and Dillon, both veterans, must focus on more aggressive qualifying efforts and pit crew overhauls, potentially exploring personnel changes or new engineer alignments to improve real-time strategy calls throughout 2026.

Manufacturer investments and team synergy, especially for SVG, could be difference-makers. While the Round of 16 is behind them, the next six races present opportunities for rebound. Strong runs, momentum-building performances, and avoidance of elementary mistakes will put any of these four in a better position to chase the playoffs again next season.

As the battle for the NASCAR championship continues, these drivers may be out of the hunt for now, but their story in NASCAR is far from over.