Fans Map Out SVG’s Playoff Path as the Kiwi Gets Buried in Points From His ‘Achilles Heel’

Shane van Gisbergen, or SVG as the NASCAR world knows him, is a road-course magician. His 2023 Chicago Street Race win in his Cup Series debut was straight-up historic, making him the first driver since Johnny Rutherford in 1963 to snag a victory in their first start. He’s kept the magic alive with top-10s at places like Circuit of The Americas and Sonoma, plus a dominant Mexico City win in 2025.

But here’s the rub: ovals, the bread and butter of NASCAR’s schedule, are his Achilles heel. In a sport where 80% of races happen on oval tracks, SVG’s struggles there are starting to weigh heavily, and the points standings are feeling the pinch.

As of June 2025, SVG’s racked up just a single top-10 in 18 Cup races, the other big result being his win in Mexico. On ovals, he’s been stuck in the 15th to 25th range, scraping by with minimal stage points. He does have top 20 finishes at tracks like Darlington and Kansas, but he’s yet to crack a solid points day or standout result on an oval.

Take Martinsville, a tight, flat track that should’ve suited his Supercars-honed skills. In spring 2024, he crashed out, finishing 34th. The fall race was better, a 12th-place finish, but only because a lucky caution bailed him out during a pit cycle. “We just got lucky there with the yellow. We were out of sequence and that saved our race. Still got a lot to learn on these tracks.” SVG admitted post-race.

Taking a step up in the Cup Series full-time, the Kiwi driver knew he would have his work cut out on ovals. And while he is likely to compete in the playoffs, the only road course race he can have a shot at winning is the Roval. But, the challenge is to clear the first round with tracks like Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol would test him to the limits. Jeff Burton put it bluntly on NASCAR America, “Shane’s one of the most talented racers I’ve seen, no question, but if you can’t produce on ovals week in and week out, especially in the playoffs, you’re always on your back foot.”

SVG’s got the talent, but ovals are his kryptonite, and the clock’s ticking. Fans are torn on his playoff chances, and a Reddit post titled, “How likely is a Shane van Gisbergen round of 8 appearance? What are the chances that the Man From The Land Down Under pulls it off?” sparked a heated debate. Some are rooting for the Kiwi; others aren’t so sure.

Fan reactions to SVG’s playoff odds

One fan kept it real, “Possible but unlikely. The big if is making the round of 12. If he does that, then round of 8 is a decent probability, but having all your eggs in one basket to advance is still not a good chance. Too many variables can go wrong.” Playoff math backs this up. SVG needs to survive the Round of 16—Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol—where his oval struggles could sink him. His 4th at Brickyard in 2024 showed promise, but consistent 15th–20th finishes without stage points won’t cut it.

Another fan pinpointed the hurdle: “That opening Darlington/Gateway/Bristol round is going to be a tough obstacle for him.” We saw that Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton punched their ticket through to the playoffs last year. But, they couldn’t make much of it. Even the likes of Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. couldn’t make any gains, despite their mastery on ovals.

A hopeful fan drew parallels, “True, he almost did it in Xfinity going from 12 to 8 until the CC made a bad call leaving him to defend on old tires… Considering that Suarez made it into the round of 12 last finishes while sucking at the Glen and Bristol, there is hope.”  SVG’s 2023 Xfinity playoff run faltered on a bad tire call, not lack of speed. Daniel Suárez’s 2022 Round of 12 advance despite weak Glen and Bristol runs shows that survival is possible. If SVG nails Gateway’s wide turns, he might sneak through.

Finally, a skeptic crunched the numbers, “15th-20th place finishes with no stage points is not going to make it to the round of 12… No shot he’d make it to the F4.” Gibbs’ 2023 exit proves this point—17th-place averages without stage points are a death sentence. SVG’s Martinsville 34th and lucky 12th underline his oval struggles. A Championship 4 run would be a Cinderella story for the ages, but it’s a long shot without oval breakthroughs.