Sixteen starts. Zero wins. Why does the Brickyard still haunt Denny Hamlin? “I remember being that close.” For Denny Hamlin, the 2008 Brickyard 400 marked a sea change in his early career. He led 26 laps that afternoon and spent most of the race inside the top three in just his third full-time Cup Series season. He appeared ready to win his maiden Crown Jewel race thanks to an agile No. 11 Toyota and momentum from recent impressive efforts. However, he fell back to third place after a late pit cycle that was made worse by the tire degradation that affected a large portion of the field that day, while Jimmie Johnson celebrated. It was the first of numerous near-misses that occurred in Indianapolis.

With five top-5 results, including that podium in 2008 and another heartbreakingly close defeat in 2020, Hamlin has now made 16 Cup Series appearances at the Brickyard. In 2020, he took the lead late in the race with just seven laps to go, but just when it looked like he had the win in the bag, his No. 11 Toyota suffered a right front tire failure, sending him hard into the wall. This saw Kevin Harvick clinch his third win at the iconic racetrack.

For a driver who has the rest of the crown jewel trophies, his bid to win at Indy has left him heartbroken. He’d take a grand slam of NSACAR crown jewel races over a championship, at least these comments suggest that: “There is just so much history at that track… Leading with six laps to go, blowing a tire back in 2020… kind of the last big major win that I don’t have on my resume,” Hamlin said in an interview with NASCAR.

Is the Brickyard 400 legacy denied or simply missing?

With three Daytona 500s, three Southern 500s, a Coca-Cola 600, and numerous All-Star Race victories, Hamlin has an impressive resume. The only Crown Jewel that escapes him is the Brickyard 400. The 44-year-old driver, who readily acknowledges the importance of a victory at Indianapolis to his career, is aware of this. “You have to have goals… those Crown Jewels… we go to races like this… I want to be high on the Crown Jewel list… and put myself well into the 60s [career wins],” Denny Hamlin shared in the pre-race press conference.

Hamlin is currently fourth in the Cup Series standings and has four victories in 2025 as of race week. The only people seated in front of him are William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott. Especially on quick, aero-sensitive courses like Indianapolis, his wins this year at Dover, Michigan, Martinsville, and Nashville support his present form. SportsLine and CBS Sports’ prediction algorithms, which rank Hamlin as the +440 favorite to win, ahead of Larson (+500), Blaney (+625), and Byron (+725), are in agreement with the oddsmakers. These predictions are derived from 10,000 race simulations that account for track history, pit efficiency, and speed patterns.

“Hamlin tops the predicted results sheet for Indianapolis… the lone crown-jewel Cup Series event the No. 11 Toyota driver has yet to conquer,” according to NASCAR.com, Fantasy Fastlane. Hamlin has demonstrated a level of consistency in the Brickyard that few drivers can match. Except for road course years and outlier DNFs, he has five top 5s and eight top 10s in his 16 oval starts at the hallowed racetrack.

This year, the No. 11 team, under the leadership of new crew chief Chris Gayle, has shown exceptional speed at tracks like Michigan and Pocono, which call for precise braking, center-exit balance, and effective aero-downforce. Their chances are further bolstered by Joe Gibbs Racing’s legacy at Indianapolis. JGR has five Cup wins at the Brickyard with Bobby Labonte, Tony Stewart, and Kyle Busch, and this only adds to the pressure Hamlin has to endure whenever he races at this track.

The 11 team excels in three areas: race control through clean air, speed over long runs, and effective pit cycles. So far this season, they have been on their A-game, and heading into the vital race weekend, Hamlin will hope this consistency remains intact. 

The Roadblocks, Rivals, and the Restarts

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is unforgiving. Long straights, a narrow Turn 1 funnel, and flat 9-degree banking have all contributed to significant incidents in recent years, especially on late restarts. Several frontrunners were eliminated by restart crashes in 2021 and 2023. In addition to the technical grind, Hamlin will have to endure the unpredictable restarts that have the power to make or ruin even the greatest car.

It’s the deepest field of the season. The 2024 Brickyard 400 winner, Kyle Larson, is in second place with excellent form. Chase Elliott, who excels on flat tracks, is at the top of the standings. Given how chaotic this race can get in the closing stages, analysts like CBS Sports’ Steven Taranto have identified Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe as valuable dark horses. Pit strategy and track position will be crucial even with elite speed.

For Denny Hamlin, winning the 2025 Brickyard 400 would be a career-defining affair rather than just another victory on his resume. With four victories this season, he would tie for the most dominant player of the year and bag more playoff points. Momentum and message are just as important as numbers. Moreover, it would be his 59th Cup Series victory, a step closer to Kevin Harvick’s record of 60 wins and inching closer to his former teammate Kyle Busch in the all-time wins list.

For context, a win at Brickyard would see Hamlin join the likes of Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jimmie Johnson, and Kevin Harvick. He would become just the fifth NASCAR driver to complete the Grand Slam. And this thought alone would fuel the drive for the entire #11 team camp for this Sunday’s race.