Modern NASCAR has quietly turned into a ruthless game of survive or disappear, and the 23XI Racing–Front Row Motorsports charter settlement only poured fuel on the fire. Ever since that deal reshaped the system, charters stopped being just team assets and started looking more like winning lottery tickets. We’re talking figures close to $80 million for a single charter now, the kind of money that can completely change the future of a smaller team overnight.

This is bad news for the teams that are hanging around in the middle or back of the pack every week. And that is why the rumors around Hyak Motorsports are starting to grow even louder. The team has struggled to establish themselves as contenders despite Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s Daytona 500 win a few years ago. And now as push comes to shove, they might just be ready to shut things down.

“There’s some other talk regarding Hyak Motorsports, the team Ricky Stenhouse races for, and there’s reason to believe, or I guess rumors to suggest, that they might close up shop at the conclusion of this season,” the host on the Rubbin’ in Racing podcast mentioned. “So I guess my—not that I necessarily believe that or this is not my scoop, but in that hypothetical, I guess there could be a world in which Ricky Stenhouse would take McDowell’s ride should he step away.

“I think that for me, that is the most logical route. Is it that if you asked me if McDowell retires, who drives his car next year? I would say Stenhouse is one, Kyle Busch is second, and the field is three.”

This is probably the ideal situation for RFK Racing and their plans. Earlier, Brad Keselowski explained how NASCAR charters work and that he could spend $40–80 million on a smaller team’s charter to secure a ride for his third driver in 2027. They have a talent in Ryan Preece, and everyone has seen what he is capable of doing, at the Bowman Gray race earlier this year. But the fact is without a permanent charter, his seat lacks the financial stability and the guaranteed entry that Keselowski’s long-term vision requires.

For Keselowski, Hyak Motorsports fits this plan perfectly. Hyak is struggling among the full-time competitors and hardly attracting any revenue or sponsors. In that case, Keselowski and RFK Racing would not have to break the bank and could easily take over Hyak’s operations. While that would solve the problem for their driver, it also leaves a lingering question about Stenhouse Jr.’s future.

The 2023 Daytona 500 winner has yet to receive an invitation from a good team. For him, this will be a do-or-die season if Hyak Motorsports ends up shutting down. The only open spot on the grid right now points towards Richard Childress Racing and their deal with Kyle Busch. Although to replace a driver of Busch’s caliber and star power, Stenhouse Jr. will need some really strong results and multiple victories this season.

However, the hosts of Rubbin’ is Racing believe that Stenhouse Jr. is possibly the most logical choice for Childress in case they want to part ways with Busch. And the reason behind it is rather simple.

Kyle Busch is no longer the best version of himself

One of the insiders on the podcast brought up the recent incidents involving Kyle Busch. The race at Texas Motor Speedway was probably one of the better performances during Busch’s three-year slump in NASCAR. However, what he did at the end of the race was rather unacceptable.

Busch is currently risking a $50,000 fine from NASCAR over his aggressive move against John Hunter Nemechek. Earlier during the race, he also tried to shut down his spotter, who was trying to calm his aggression. The co-host of the podcast then argued that Busch is way past his stardom days in NASCAR.

“I don’t know what Kyle Busch wants, and I don’t know who wants Kyle Busch anymore,” the host said. “I saw a tweet that was basically like, ‘What a fall from grace! Kyle Busch is now beefing with John Hunter Nemechek, like, for 21st place while the guys he used to be competing with are, like, battling out up front.’

“I mean, Busch would be fun. I think that’d be a fun move, and I can’t think of anybody else I’d rather see in that seat just from, like, an experiment standpoint, but I don’t know if it’s the right answer.”

He further suggested that Busch should be replaced with a younger, better driver who can deliver the desired results for the team.

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago, Dale Jr. argued that Busch’s stardom is exactly what RCR currently needs. However, his radio fallout with the team and unnecessary moves against fellow drivers do raise the question: Is this his last dance with a top team?