With six Chase races remaining and a 91-point deficit to Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and the No. 12 team have their backs against the wall. One bad race or a DNF and they would be out of the title race. But how can Blaney cover up the 91-point deficit to still be a factor?
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“We’re going to have to try to win two of the last six, you know, to have a shot,” Blaney said in an interaction with Mike Bagley and Pete Pistone on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
This urgency has grown after Larson’s performance at Kansas Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver entered the Hollywood Casino 400 as the Chase leader, and then produced a maximum 76-point day. Having led 235 of 267 laps, he won Stage 1 and Stage 2, and ultimately claimed the race.
This result increased Larson’s advantage over Denny Hamlin by 26 points, leaving Blaney fifth in the standings. Unfortunately for Blaney, this scenario is exactly what makes the championship gap difficult to erase.
“I think for the field, the worst-case scenario was Larson dominating like he did at Kansas, right, was already the points leader and just went and had a max points day, literally 76 points,” Blaney continued in the interaction. “We had a good day, but, you know, it’s hard to compete with stuff like that when he puts a day like that together.”
Blaney’s P5 finish has its own value. However, Larson’s combination of stage wins and the eventual race win resulted in Blaney’s climb towards the championship lead getting steeper. Since every point carries forward through the Chase, Blaney feels that good finishes alone won’t make the cut if Larson’s performance keeps progressing at this rate.
A win from here on would give Blaney a much larger points haul than a normal top-five finish. This would also prevent Larson from collecting another maximum-points result. Blaney also knows the rest of his Chase has to be built around avoiding another major points loss.
“Big, big points days and finish well in the others, and you never know,” he said.
There is some statistical evidence behind Blaney’s optimism, considering NASCAR’s pre-Chase analysis gave Blaney an edge at several of the remaining Chase venues, such as Phoenix and Martinsville, while also rating him highest at Talladega among the superspeedway drivers. All significant opportunities for the Penske driver.
If we take another approach and go by Blaney’s own results this season, he won at Phoenix earlier this year after starting fifth, and he finished P6 at Martinsville in the spring.
The upcoming schedule is not perfect for Blaney, however. The Chase is heavily weighted toward intermediate tracks, including Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Homestead. Team Penske is strong on flat ovals and short tracks, and that is why the streak of intermediate ovals leads to more challenge for the No. 12 team.
“There’s still six more of these things. You know, there’s plenty of time,” Blaney said. “I’m very hopeful going to Vegas based off our Kansas speed that we can, you know, maybe take another step and get better and try to compete for the W out there.”
At Kansas, Blaney started 25th after NASCAR’s performance metric was used to reset the grid due to qualifying getting cancelled. Despite the position disadvantage, he managed to charge through traffic, finishing P5 and scoring 37 points in the process.
This recovery becomes crucial, as Blaney’s strategy now requires more than simply surviving races. He needs to convert his advantages into victories, particularly at places like Phoenix, Martinsville and Talladega.
The No. 12 driver is aware of things that can happen when things fall in place, but at the wrong time. Chase Briscoe briefly passed Larson for the lead at Kansas and appeared capable of delivering the type of result Blaney needed at this point, only for a ‘loose’ No. 19 Toyota and late wall contact to drop him to fourth. Briscoe left Kansas 123 points behind Larson and seems to have thrown in the towel regarding his title hopes.
Blaney, however, remains hopeful. With six races still left, he appears to have cracked the formula he believes can keep him alive: two wins, major points hauls elsewhere, and no major setbacks.
Larson may have created a significant gap at Kansas, but according to Blaney, it’s still game on. That said, he and his team are aware that the remaining six races are no longer about consistency. They need to find themselves in the victory lane consistently.