If 2025 were a movie, Carson Hocevar would be the wildcard antihero nobody saw coming, fast, unapologetic, and always ready to slam the door on anyone who tried to pass him. However, his biggest enemy wasn’t his peers but himself. The Spire Motorsports sophomore had no shortage of pace or confidence, but his all-out, elbows-up approach often turned promise into controversy, leaving him with bruised race cars, strained relationships, and a reputation that grew louder than his results. But 2026 is a new and fresh start; with all lessons learned this year, Hocevar could be leaning toward a better season next year.

Can Carson Hocevar redeem himself in 2026?

Erric Estepp, a NASCAR YouTuber, believes that it is Carson’s year next season, and here’s why!

“So, if Spire can keep building on the speed they’ve developed, but eliminate some of the technical mishaps, then yeah, Carson Hocevar, regardless of format, is a top-15 contender—maybe even a top-10 guy if everything goes according to plan,” he said. “I think Carson Hocevar absolutely could bounce back in a big way in 2026.”

Let’s take a look at his 2025 season. This year was far from a sophomore slump, but if one only looks at the statistics, it paints a fairly underwhelming picture for his team.

Zero wins, no cars in the playoff, and with Hocevar finishing 23rd in the standings with a 21st-place average finish, the numbers are actually worse than his rookie campaign, and on paper, it doesn’t look great.

However, that surface-level view doesn’t tell the whole story. The reason the 23-year-old driver looks primed for a rebound in 2026 is what happened beneath the results. If you have been paying close attention, the No. 77 car had more speed last season than ever before.

Hocevar showed real flashes of potential, most notably at Atlanta in the spring, where he may very well have won if the caution had come out just a few seconds later.

He was also legitimately competitive at Michigan and Nashville and put together a solid stretch of performances over the summer. Moreover, Spire Motorsports has shown a clear willingness to take bold risks.

The team fast-tracked the Michigan native directly from the truck series to the cup series and has continued shaping its lineup, bringing in Michael McDowell, moving Justin Haley out, and adding Daniel Suarez into the mix.

All signs point to Spire continuing to make aggressive moves behind the scenes to improve competitiveness.

If their equipment becomes more reliable next season, the No. 77 car in particular could emerge as a legitimate threat. Hocevar recorded 8 DNFs last year, and notably five of those were attributed to mechanical failures. That alone has significantly skewed his overall results.

But as they brush it off their back, the No. 77 team may shape up to be formidable next year. And more recently, the 23-year-old has already set expectations after his virtual victory at the Chili Bowl Nationals.

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Hocevar aims to return to the Tulsa showdown

Hocevar recently celebrated a virtual victory in the iRacing Chili Bowl, and the win reignited his desire to compete in the real-life version of the prestigious dirt racing event, scheduled for January next year. iRacing hosted a special Chili Bowl event in which the Series Driver led much of the race to secure the win following a late restart.

Afterward, the 23-year-old driver shared an image of the Chili Bowl midget car on his Instagram story just a few days ago, using the moment to express his interest in returning to the Chili Bowl Nationals in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

“Won the iRacing Chili Bowl last night. Wish I was racing the real thing this year,” he wrote.

Earlier this month, he also competed in a dirt late model race at the Gateway Dirt Nationals. Following that event, he spoke about his desire to participate in more dirt races that emphasize driver feel and racecraft over heavy data analysis.

“Having real racing or just not a lot of aero or engineering, I’m not looking at laptops and data, and you’re looking at flow, try to figure out what lane works everything,” he added. “So, it’s just fun to do.”

The Chili Bowl Nationals are set to return in Tulsa with the 40th running of the event scheduled for January 12-17, 2026, at the Tulsa Expo Center, also known as the SageNet Center.

The entry list for the event includes several high-profile drivers, such as the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion and defending Chili Bowl winner Kyle Larson, three-time Chili Bowl champion Christopher Bell, and Ty Gibbs.

While the Michigan native isn’t on the list yet, it can be said with much certainty that he will work towards returning to the Chili Bowl Nationals. Hocevar made his debut in the event in 2022 but has not returned since his most recent appearance in 2023, and this win may be a starting point