Three-time Cup Series champion Joey Logano looked like a shadow of his former self 18 races into the 2026 season. A 24th-place finish in Sonoma dropped him to 20th in the standings, with most counting him out of Chase contention. Then came North Wilkesboro, where the Team Penske driver dominated to win his first race in over a year. Since then, he has been on an upward trajectory, finishing ninth in the standings heading into the final 10 races.
While most would expect momentum to play a role in Logano’s quest for a fourth title, some garage insiders believe that ninth is too far off to win the championship with this format.
“I think the champion has to come from the top five,” said Freddie Kraft, 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace’s spotter, on the Door Bumper Clear podcast when asked if Logano can make his run into the Chase even more historic.
The Chase features a 15-point bonus for wins, meaning the winner will get 55 points as opposed to the usual 40 during the regular season. Anyone winning multiple races in the Chase can have a chance. But not Logano, according to Kraft, simply because of the tracks in the Chase.
“He’s going to all of the racetracks that their cars run good at, he runs good at. And that’s why he made that ground up because flat miles, short tracks — that was their bread and butter,” added Kraft in the same podcast. “We’re going back to mile-and-a-halves now. And I don’t think Logano is making up sixty-five points on Denny. I think it’s gonna come from the top five.”
For Kraft, there is a driver who can go on a run of wins, having already shown the comeback spirit through the season, and that’s Chase Briscoe. The Toyotas have been the best car this season, and with the Chase schedule made up of mile-and-a-half tracks mainly, Briscoe could have an advantage.
Even former driver and FOX pit reporter Regan Smith believes that it may be a JGR driver who goes on a hot run. He believes the push could come from the top six, largely because he expects Christopher Bell to make a strong run. Sitting sixth, Bell has the potential to get hot and move up the standings.
However, Smith’s favourite to win the championship is the leader, Denny Hamlin, not just because he’s 25 points clear at the top after the points table was reset, but for the same reason why Kraft doesn’t believe Logano can pull it off: the tracks on the schedule.
“My gut tells me it’s Denny’s year,” said Smith. “His ability to go out on every type of racetrack, and whether it’s a good day or a bad day, we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks where they’ve maybe had some of the problems and had some races where it’s like, oh man, he’s gonna finish 20th today, he still finds a way to be in the top seven.”
Hamlin’s consistency throughout the season has been one of his strongest suits. He is the only driver entering the Chase in contention for the championship to have zero DNFs. The Toyota has been the best car this year, and Hamlin has been the best driver, with four wins.
Briscoe is entering the Chase 45 points behind Hamlin. Currently the fifth seed, the JGR No. 19 driver had an awful start to the season with a 36th-place finish in the Daytona 500. Mechanical issues and four DNFs plagued his season, but 10 top-five finishes, including a remarkable drive to second in Sonoma and his win at Chicagoland, have helped define his season.
The Toyotas remain under a lot of focus, while Logano and Team Penske’s comeback has also made them favorites for some. Amid all this, the Chevrolets of Hendrick Motorsports are somewhat going under the radar.
Reigning Cup champion Kyle Larson hasn’t won a race since Kansas last year, and despite two wins this season, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott hasn’t looked like a genuine contender either.
Larson enters as the seventh seed, while Elliott is eighth. The Chevrolet cars have clearly been short on pace, and it seems unlikely they can suddenly find what’s been missing all season. But the HMS drivers have three championships between them, and that championship pedigree might still count for something.