Only one race remains in the 2023 Cup Series schedule before the paddock lands in Phoenix for the ultimate race. One title and four drivers. Who would prove to be the best of them all? Needless to say, the adrenaline is pumping hard through the veins of these speedsters, as the race for the final two spots reaches Martinsville. Moving forward, nothing less than utter unruliness can be expected.

Everyone remembers last year’s slugfest in Martinsville. This year, the show comes down to the 8 drivers from the garages of RFK Racing, Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and 23XI Racing. Will there be a new winner? Who will get through by points? How much can a driver score to advance solely on points? Many such questions were answered by an HMS legend recently.

Hendrick Motorsports legend reveals the answer to a burning question

Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr’s former crew chief Steve Letarte recently talked about how the Martinsville race will turn out. In the latest episode of the Dirty Mo Dough podcast, the crew members, along with Steve Letarte, sat with their stat books open and pens uncapped, to jot down the odds of winning the Xfinity 500.

If there is a new winner, there will be just one seat up for grabs in the Grand Finale. However, if there is no new winner, two drivers would have the chance to compete in the top 4. But that would come down to points. As things stand, the HMS sensation William Byron is the one who is sitting in the most favorable position with a 30-point cushion on the cutline. But that’s the least likely thing to happen.

A crew member asked Letarte, “What is the most points someone has made up without winning to get in (the Championship 4)?” It took Letarte a careful series of back-and-forth questions to ensure if he was talking about any cut race or just the final race of the round of 8.

When the crew member confirmed that it was the round of 8 that they were talking about, Letarte blatantly replied, “No one has ever made up more than 10.” However, he continued saying that even 10 was a stretch. The number is super less, perhaps not even a double-digit number. “I would say that number is probably super small  like 5 or 6…3, there you go, 3!”

Then what about Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., who are 17 points below the cutline? Letarte lost no time and said that they were going to have to win. “Someone below is gonna win. I don’t mean to be a jerk when I say this: Nobody makes it up, because the opportunity disappears when somebody wins,” he explained.

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As the entire grid approaches the Paperclip in Virginia, let’s take a look at the playoff picture for the five contending athletes.

The playoff picture moving into the shortest NASCAR racetrack

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Denny Hamlin is going to retire in a few years’ time. And he will not get a bag full of opportunities to win a Cup title. Hence, this year is crucial for the #11 Toyota Camry pilot. However, last week at Homestead-Miami, he got ousted from the latter half of the competition, owing to a steering issue.

Similarly, his teammate Martin Truex Jr also fell out of contention due to an engine issue. The regular season champion hopes to regain his last glory at Martinsville, where he has won 3 times before. But luck just doesn’t seem to go in his favor. There could probably be no other reason for his engine to blow off despite him winning the pole.

Exiting the JGR garage and entering the realm of the Fords, Ryan Blaney has a high chance of making his first Championship 4 appearance this year. His playoff journey got a setback when NASCAR disqualified him at Las Vegas, but to his utter glee, NASCAR revoked the penalty, which in turn, gave him enough points to move 10 points above the cutline. Moreover, he has the best average finish of 9.5 at Martinsville.

For Tyler Reddick, all he needs is to overcome a 10-point deficit and a poor track record of just one top-10 finish at Martinsville in 7 starts made at the 0.5-mile racetrack. And for RFK Racing protégé Chris Buescher, it’s a must-win situation. There’s no other way this man could possibly make up for the 43 points that he lacks to have made it out of the bubble.

Who do you think will win at Martinsville? Do let us know your predictions in the comments below. We’ll be waiting to hear from you!

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