The South Point 400 catapulted Kyle Larson straight to the Phoenix Raceway after a dominating performance in Las Vegas. Only two races remain to finalize the three drivers who will join Larson in the Championship 4 race. Although Hendrick Motorsports’ #5 driver has refused to back down from repeating his feat from last year in Homestead, a NASCAR analyst foresees a nearby racer snatching Larson’s reigning ground.

NASCAR insider predicts a Hendrick Motorsports victory in Homestead but excludes Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson spent the previous week breezing past three different racing events, leaving an indelible mark on each one of them. In the most accomplished seven days of his racing career, the 2021 champion won his High Limit Sprint Racing series, aced the Indy 500 Rookie Test, and won the Round of 8 playoff race in the ongoing Cup Series. Despite these accolades, the Hendrick Motorsports driver sent across a fierce message for anyone under the misapprehension that the #5 team would slow down in the next two races. However, NASCAR editor for NBC, Dustin Long, is partial toward Larson’s teammate for the upcoming race.

Long feels the race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway would largely depend on prior performances in Darlington and Charlotte due to the similar surfaces of their racetracks. For that reason, the racing analyst is inclined to favor Hendrick Motorsports’ #24 driver William Byron. Dustin Long confidently assured, “Well I won’t tell you why he can, I will tell you that he will find his way to Phoenix and it’ll be this weekend at Homestead Miami Speedway. I think something that there’ll be a key for this team is the high tire wear at Homestead. 

“This is a tire that teams have used at both Darlington races and Charlotte Oval. And in those races, William Byron has had three top-five finishes this season, including a win at Darlington earlier season. So I think this race sets up perfectly well for William Byron to join his teammate Kyle Larson in Phoenix in racing for a championship. I think he does it by getting the win this weekend and they would add to his total, give him seven wins in the season. So the lock of the week—William Byron to Phoenix.”

Watch this story: Kyle Larson’s New Challenge: From NASCAR to IndyCar

But perhaps Long overlooked a crucial factor while choosing William Byron over Kyle Larson.

Joe Gibbs Racing driver waiting to overshadow Rick Hendrick’s champion contenders

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William Byron might have won the Goodyear 400 held in May, but Kyle Larson prevailed in the most recent playoff race in Darlington. Not only does Larson hold a better average finish (10.7) than Byron (17) in Homestead, but the #5 HMS driver also surpasses his #24 teammate’s track records in Darlington and Charlotte. 

With 6 Top 5s and 8 Top 10s, Kyle Larson has an average finish of 9.4 in Darlington as opposed to the 15.6 that William Byron produced through 4 Top 5s and 5 Top 10s. Furthermore, the two HMS drivers are on par with their average finishes in Charlotte. Although Byron has a slight edge, the #24 driver has never won on that racetrack, unlike Larson.

Besides, when expertise on the Track Too Tough to Tame is considered, no active driver came close to Denny Hamlin’s 4 wins and an average finish of 8.4. Joe Gibbs Racing’s #11 driver can also boast of an impressive average finish of 12.7 in Charlotte and 9.8 in Homestead, ahead of both his Hendrick Motorsports rivals. 

In this competitive battle for the championship trophy, more than one playoff racer will attempt to dominate in Homestead. But only one skillful driver will attain the elusive checkered. Is it going to come down to Rick Hendrick’s aces?

Kyle Larson Reveals No Help for Rick Hendrick’s Superstar With 5-Word Warning