It’s been 38 races since Kyle Larson has been to Victory Lane. This is equivalent to a whole NASCAR season, and it feels strange that the defending champ hasn’t been able to get this monkey off his back. You’d take a look at standings and find two HMS Chevys in the top 10, but it is hard to ignore JGR’s consistent speed and Spire Motorsport’s rapid rise. So what’s exactly holding up HMS from matching their past runs? It looks like Kevin Harvick has the right answer.

The common theme of “horsepower” being the issue was not the case for HMS. Nor was he doubting the skill of the driver. He believes that the main problem facing Hendrick Motorsports is far more difficult to resolve since it lies in the liminal space between mechanical grip and aerodynamics.

“If you get that aero balance off and you can’t get the front end to work, then it’s just such a hard balance to figure out in order to get the car to where it needs to go from a handling standpoint to be balanced aero-wise with the front end still where it needs to be mechanically. And they have not consistently figured it out,” said Harvick on the Happy Hour podcast.

Although it seems complicated, it’s easy to observe the effect on track. In the Next Gen era, when the air is dirty, the vehicles respond strongly.

Once another car steals airflow off the nose, it becomes difficult to steer. Teams start chasing it with suspension and setup adjustments as soon as the aerodynamic balance moves. The front tires then stop reacting, which is why it becomes quite challenging to find the ideal balance between rear stability and front-end bite. Hendrick just hasn’t been able to maintain that equilibrium, according to Harvick.

An excellent illustration of this is the time earlier in the season when Bowman had one of his best days at Atlanta, moving up from 36th to 15th by the end of Stage 2 and demonstrating a great restart speed. However, handling problems and poor long-run balance finally caught up with him, and he ended up one lap behind in 23rd position after getting caught in traffic.

Ironically, Chevrolet’s own update may have contributed to part of that issue. Chevrolet introduced an upgraded Camaro ZL1 body for the Cup Series in 2026. The refreshed package included a larger hood power dome, a revised grille design, and more aggressive rocker panels intended to improve front-end downforce while managing drag against Ford and Toyota.

On paper, it should have been beneficial. Rather, months ago, Harvick had already cautioned that it could make matters more difficult. In March, following six races in which Hendrick failed to get even a single win, he stated,

“They’ve got a new body this year that seems to have thrown them for a little bigger loop than everybody anticipated as far as the balance goes. All the new rules and all the things that are happening in the Cup series with lower downforce, more horsepower at a lot of these racetracks, it seems that they are going to take a little bit longer to wrap their arms around everything.”

After three months, that forecast appears to be getting closer to reality. Hendrick Motorsports has only had two victories so far in the 2026 season, both of which came from Chase Elliott. Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Kyle Larson are still winless. The teams that Chevrolet supporters anticipated falling behind have, in the meantime, discreetly surged.

Shane van Gisbergen’s ability with the car has made Trackhouse Racing a weekly danger. Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez have both made significant progress, including getting a win each, and consistently put themselves in contention at Spire Motorsports.

Suddenly, the distance that used to divide HMS from the rest of Chevy’s camp doesn’t seem as natural. And if Kevin Harvick is right, Hendrick’s issue isn’t that they’ve become slower. It’s that everyone else may have figured out the balance puzzle faster.