Phoenix Raceway has a habit of exposing the smallest weaknesses in a championship contender’s game. A driver can dominate the opening stages, only to lose track position on pit road or see a late caution turn the race upside down. That uncertainty has made the Arizona oval a pivotal venue throughout NASCAR’s postseason history. As the Cup Series heads back to Phoenix, several drivers have reasons to believe they can make a statement. But Andrew Kurland’s assessment of Kyle Larson suggests the competition could have a difficult task ahead.

“I got bad news for the competition, and that is Kyle Larson is very good at Phoenix,” Andrew Kurland said via the video put out by PRN on their X account. “He’s going for his fifth straight top-five at this racetrack. He also has the series best average finish, including a win at this racetrack.”

The No. 5 HMS driver’s consistency at Phoenix Raceway is the basis of Kurland’s warning. The Hendrick Motorsports driver is chasing a fifth consecutive top-five finish at the one-mile oval, a streak that would further underline his ability to deliver when the postseason pressure intensifies.

The recent results support the concern. Larson finished fourth in the November 2024 championship race before recording three consecutive third-place finishes at Phoenix in March 2025, November 2025, and March 2026. That sequence gives him four straight top-five finishes heading into the October 2026 race.

His broader record makes the warning more compelling. According to the statistical figures cited ahead of the Freeway Insurance 500, Larson holds the best average finishing position among active Cup Series drivers at Phoenix, with a 10.042 mark across 24 starts. Denny Hamlin ranks second at 10.357, leaving a difference of 0.315 positions, while Blaney follows at 10.381.

Kyle Larson has also converted that consistency into a victory. He won the November 2021 championship race at Phoenix, securing his first Cup Series title. That triumph falls outside his current four-race top-five streak, but it reinforces the point: Larson has demonstrated that he can contend for the win as well as deliver strong finishes.

For the competition, the challenge is not simply finding enough speed to run alongside the No. 5 HMS driver. It is sustaining that performance over a full race while avoiding the strategic mistakes and late-race setbacks that can decide the outcome at Phoenix.

Chase Briscoe is one driver who has given the field a reason to believe Larson can be beaten. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver won at Las Vegas on October 4, leading 175 laps and sweeping both stages, before following it up with a victory at Charlotte on October 11. At Charlotte, Briscoe edged teammate Christopher Bell by just 0.029 seconds in a dramatic finish.

“Someone else is going to have to step up. We saw the Chase Briscoe run. Is this time for Ryan Blaney to put his hat back into the ring? Is this time for someone finally to dethrone Denny Hamlin as the second-place runner?” 

Those victories have given Briscoe momentum at a crucial stage of the Chase. His Charlotte win also demonstrated his ability to execute under pressure, holding off a teammate in a finish decided by inches. Phoenix presents a different challenge, but Briscoe has established himself as a contender capable of capitalizing if Larson leaves the door open.

Ryan Blaney has an even more direct claim to the conversation. He won the March 2026 race at Phoenix after recovering from early pit-road setbacks, then held off Christopher Bell over the closing laps. He had also won the 2025 championship race at the track, giving him victories in his two most recent Phoenix appearances.

That history explains why Blaney belongs among the drivers capable of challenging Larson. He does not need to discover a winning formula at Phoenix; he has already executed it twice. Another strong performance could put him in position to contend for the victory and strengthen his postseason campaign.

Denny Hamlin remains a significant threat, too. His average finishing position places him second among active drivers at Phoenix, and his experience makes him difficult to dismiss. Bell also has a Phoenix victory on his record, while Briscoe’s recent form makes him another driver to watch. A competitive race from any of them could change the standings, particularly if a leading contender encounters trouble.

Phoenix’s History Proves One Mistake Can Change the Chase 

Phoenix’s history offers a stronger case for Kurland’s warning than simply pointing to its reputation as a postseason venue. When the track hosted the penultimate race of the Cup Series season, it regularly determined which drivers would advance to the championship showdown at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Sometimes, one incident was enough to end a title contender’s hopes.

In 2017, Jimmie Johnson’s bid for an eighth championship came to an abrupt end when a right-front tire failure sent his No. 48 Chevrolet into the wall during the Round of 8 finale. Johnson finished 39th and was eliminated from championship contention. Denny Hamlin also saw his hopes disappear after contact with Chase Elliott ended his race, while Brad Keselowski secured the final Championship 4 spot. The result showed how quickly Phoenix could separate title hopefuls from those left watching the finale.

The 2018 race offered a different kind of pressure. Kyle Busch entered Phoenix with a 28-point cushion above the elimination line and won the race, securing his place in the Championship 4. For Busch, the result removed any uncertainty before the finale; for the other contenders, it reinforced the importance of delivering when the margin for error was at its smallest.

More recently, the 2025 championship race illustrated how a late incident can change the title picture even when the race is nearly decided. Hamlin had led 208 laps and appeared poised to claim his first Cup championship when William Byron suffered a tire failure and crashed with only a few laps remaining. 

The caution triggered a decisive round of pit strategy. Larson gained track position with a two-tire stop and finished third, taking the championship, while Hamlin fell to sixth and Blaney won the race.

“And Phoenix, back when it wasn’t the championship race, it was the second-to-last race, was oftentimes, strangely enough, kind of the championship decider. Someone would have an issue.

“Someone would have a problem. It would kind of set the course for Homestead the next weekend. I know it’s a little bit earlier this year in the postseason schedule in terms of the chase, but I still think we could expect somewhat of a wild card this weekend.” Kurland added.

Phoenix no longer occupies the same place in the 2026 postseason schedule, but those examples explain why Kurland still sees the potential for a wild card. A driver can arrive with championship momentum and leave facing a very different situation after one mechanical problem, one late caution or one costly strategic call.

Larson’s numbers make him the driver to beat, but they do not guarantee another strong finish. Briscoe’s momentum, Blaney’s recent success at Phoenix and Hamlin’s experience give the field credible alternatives. At a track where the smallest mistake can reshape the postseason, Kyle Larson’s rivals will have to make their opportunity count.