Insider Feels Darlington Debacle Exposed SVG’s Oval Deficit as Playoff Cutline Looms

The Darlington Cook Out Southern 500 on August 31 kicked off the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with high drama, as Chase Briscoe piloted his No. 19 Toyota to victory lane for his second win of the season. But ‘The Lady in Black’ didn’t spare several contenders, including Shane van Gisbergen, who entered the postseason with four wins but now clings to 12th in the standings, just three points above the cutline. A tough night left him in 32nd, amplifying concerns about his consistency as the field tightens. So why is everyone watching SVG closely?

With all four of his 2025 victories coming on road courses like Chicago and Watkins Glen, van Gisbergen’s oval performances have drawn scrutiny, averaging 26.4 across those tracks this year. “It’s a shame because I had reasonable hopes we went good here in the spring, and our cars are getting better. I felt helpless out there,” he said post-race, hinting at deeper issues in his No. 88 Chevrolet. Upcoming oval races at World Wide Technology Raceway and Bristol could define his Round of 12 fate. But what do NASCAR insiders say about how the Darlington debacle exposed his oval routine? Let’s hear it.

Insiders break down Shane van Gisbergen’s oval struggles

On the PRN Live Instagram reel, hosts didn’t hold back on Shane van Gisbergen‘s Darlington performance, tying it directly to his broader challenges. Alexis Erickson said, “If we were going to a road course and a thousand percent, I would put all my money in the SVG basket, but we’re not, and we know that he runs that, unfortunately, at a deficit when it comes to these ovals,” highlighting the Kiwi driver’s stark contrast in track types.

This stems from van Gisbergen’s background as a three-time Supercars champion in Australia, where he dominated on varied circuits but lacked NASCAR’s oval-heavy schedule upon joining Trackhouse Racing full-time in 2025. His spring Darlington run was a respectable 20th, but the playoff opener saw him lose speed early, dropping two laps down after a strategy misfire amid cautions, as detailed in race reports.

Doug Rice echoed the sentiment, focusing on the squandered opportunity. “I just felt like this was crucial for him to get out of there with the top 20, yes. And give him a little room to maneuver to be 15 points above the cut line, and they squandered all those playoff points… Practically, all of them were just spilled on the carpet at Darlington,” he said, referring to van Gisbergen’s pre-race buffer eroded by the 32nd-place finish.

Entering playoffs as the sixth seed thanks to road course prowess, he now risks elimination without oval gains, especially with Bristol, where he finished 38th earlier this year, next on September 13. His oval average of 26.4 across 18 such starts underscores the adaptation curve, much like his 2023 Cup debut win at Chicago, but subsequent oval learning pains.

Doug Rice also noted his value to the sport, stating, “I think he’s good for the game. I think the international following that he has, I mean, if we post something about SVG, our likes go through the roof because of the following he has in New Zealand and Australia.” The international appeal from New Zealand and Australia boosts engagement, as Alexis Erickson added that posts about SVG spike likes significantly. This global following, built from 80 Supercar wins before NASCAR, adds pressure but also motivation, yet ovals remain the hurdle as playoffs emphasize them more in later rounds.

With only a three-point cushion from drivers like Joey Logano below the line, van Gisbergen’s team must address setup issues quickly. As insiders weigh in, bigger names like Dale Earnhardt Jr. are chiming in, too. His take on van Gisbergen’s path adds another layer to the playoff tension.

Dale Jr. foresees SVG’s early playoff exit

Dale Earnhardt Jr. didn’t sugarcoat his take on van Gisbergen during a recent Dirty Mo Media podcast episode. “Looking at the SVG. Looking at the rest of these guys, man,” he remarked, lumping the Trackhouse driver with Austin Cindric as likely first-round casualties due to inconsistent oval runs. This prediction gains weight from van Gisbergen’s Darlington collapse, where a risky one-stop strategy failed amid caution, leaving him 32nd and eroding his 16-point pre-race cushion. Dale Earnhardt Jr.‘s insight draws from van Gisbergen’s rookie status, mirroring past internationals like Marcos Ambrose, who excelled on roads but faltered elsewhere.

Pairing van Gisbergen with Cindric makes sense given their similar profiles. “Cindric could have a rough day. He shows up sometimes in a run of 12 shows and some other times around 28,” Earnhardt added, noting Cindric’s volatility despite a +12 buffer in ninth. For van Gisbergen, the comment highlights his four road wins but zero oval podiums, putting extra scrutiny on upcoming tracks like Bristol, where he crashed out earlier this year. If he can’t muster top-15s, Earnhardt sees the bottom four, currently including Logano at -3, swallowing him up.

Still, van Gisbergen remains optimistic amid the crush. As he told reporters after Darlington, “I don’t know next week’s track, and Bristol is very tough. So, just have to try and do our best job and hopefully get good results in the coming weeks,” showing grit that could defy the odds. With team tweaks possible, his playoff dreams hang by a thread, but a strong Gateway showing might silence doubters like Earnhardt.