Two races into the Round of 12 and two heated moments? Yes, that’s playoffs for you. But the common driver? Denny Hamlin. His collision with Bubba Wallace after wrestling with busted power steering at Kansas turned the tables. He is comfortable with a 48-point cushion above the cutoff, while Wallace is in big trouble as the NASCAR Cup garage heads to the Round of 12 finale. And that is exactly what is worrying for Wallace’s run.

Leading a race high 159 laps, sweeping the stages and scoring the fastest lap, Hamlin seemed almost desperate to get the 60th win. However, Wallace, who was battling the handling issues with the car early on, found himself nudged up the track and into the wall. That sure was frustrating for the 23XI driver after he had led both overtime restarts only to see Chase Elliott cruise past to victory. A win for both Hamlin and Wallace was absolutely crucial, as it would have propelled them to the Round of 8 with a guarantee. However, as Wallace fell to P5, his playoff chances have also dropped.

Speaking on PRN Live, NASCAR insiders broke down Wallace’s chances of making it into the Round of 8. Doug Rice began, “Well, he’s 48 points above the cut line and in pretty good shape, Zach. The problem is that the car he owns, that Bubba Wallace drives, between turn four and the checkered flag went from a guaranteed spot in the final eight if he wins to 26 points below the cut line by the time he crossed the finish line and finished fifth.”

Another insider continued, “Which is a margin that is almost impossible to make up at the Roval. You just got to go for the win if you’re Bubba Wallace, and unfortunately, he doesn’t; he’s not a guy who we expect to go contend for the win.”

If you take a look at last year’s Roval race, Bubba Wallace showcased a commanding performance, finishing ninth in the NASCAR Cup Series race at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s road course. This result marked his second top 10 finish at the Roval, following a seventh-place finish in 2022. However, things do not look so good for Wallace.

Bubba Wallace now faces a steep climb; he either needs a monster points day and a heavy dose of luck or, more realistically, a win. Even a top-five finish without a victory only gives him a 17.2% chance of advancing, and with his Next-Gen road course Driver Rating ranking the lowest among active playoff drivers compared to Shane van Gisbergen, the outlook for the No. 23 is grim.

But things could look different for 23XI Racing as a whole amid the new NASCAR lawsuit troubles. Things aren’t looking much brighter for teammate Tyler Reddick, who finds himself in an even tougher points bind than Wallace. His lone hope? Reddick’s 100.2 average road course rating is the closest to SVG of any current Cup driver, making him the biggest threat to take the three-time Supercars Cup champion down outright and bypass points worries entirely.

It is a Hail Mary scenario, but it is not impossible; after all, Reddick starts on the pole at a track where he has never finished worse than 12th since 2020. But as the dust settles on the Wallace and Hamlin situation, Denny Hamlin has weighed in on his employee’s chances at Roval.

Denny Hamlin tells the NASCAR field to watch out for Bubba Wallace at the Roval

Bubba Wallace’s evolution as a driver has been marked by one standout area—his road course game. What used to be a weakness has become a real strength, and that is why he enters the Charlotte Roval as a legitimate threat. Denny Hamlin even fired off a warning to the field, saying, “You’ll have to contend with him this weekend, too. His road course skills have improved dramatically.”

And the stats back up. Wallace has logged two top tens at the Roval since the Next-Gen era began, and with 26 points to make up before the Round of 8 cut-off, he has every reason to be at his sharpest on Sunday. Even though Hamlin has applauded the road-course ace SVG’s oval performance, he still backs Wallace up.

For Hamlin, the recent Kansas drama underscored the unique challenge of both being a driver and team co-owner, but he has made one thing clear: Wallace isn’t just competitive; he is 23XI’s most potent weapon.