Shane van Gisbergen’s 2025 Cup Series playoff debut has been a brutal baptism, a true “trial by fire” that’s laid bare the challenges of adapting to NASCAR’s oval-heavy schedule. The three-time Supercars champ from New Zealand stunned the world with his 2023 Chicago Street Course win, and his road-course prowess carried him to four victories in 2025, Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen. But the playoffs?

It’s been a different story. Darlington, his favorite oval, chewed him up with a 32nd-place finish, battling handling woes that left him outside the top 20. Gateway followed with more multi-groove misery, where he couldn’t match the rhythm of oval veterans, finishing 25th. Now Bristol’s high-banked bullring awaits as the Round of 16 cutoff, demanding short-track instincts and split-second decisions, areas where SVG is still honing his edge.

At 14th in the standings, 15 points below the line, his hopes hinge on a miracle, but insiders are sounding the alarm, painting a damning picture of a rookie facing an uphill battle in ovals that don’t play to his strengths.

Insiders paint a bleak picture for SVG

On the latest Rubbin is Racing episode, hosts Spider and Moonhead didn’t sugarcoat Shane van Gisbergen’s playoff plight. Spider led off, “I was going to say Shane would be the first guy that says doomed, you know. Bristol upcoming not necessarily the kind of track that he’s proficient at. So yeah, I would be most concerned about him. There is some good talent in the outside of the top 12. I mean, Austin Dillon turned some heads this year, but he would probably be my next guy out after SVG.”

SVG’s oval struggles are no secret. His best Cup oval finish is 12th at Martinsville last fall, and he has just six top-20s on ovals this year, including 14th at Richmond and Charlotte. Austin Dillon has had flashes, but with only four career Cup wins since 2013, he is an underdog, too. Spider’s “doomed” call for SVG at Bristol rings true. The half-mile concrete demands rhythm he is still building, especially after a 38th in his spring Cup start there due to suspension issues.

Moonhead piled on, “Berry is my first pick just because he’s been running good, he hasn’t ran long at neither race but he was running decent at Gateway and obviously qualified really well at Darlington…Penske is pretty good at Bristol. Historically, I really like him. I think Shane’s doomed. This was a tough round for him. Really looking at it. I don’t think that was talked about enough but we went to three or are going to a third very tough track, especially for somebody like him.”

Josh Berry’s steady 2025 with Stewart-Haas Racing, top-10 qualifying at Darlington, and decent Gateway pace give him an edge, boosted by Penske’s Bristol prowess, with seven wins since 2012 for Keselowski and Logano. The Round of 16, Darlington, Gateway, Bristol, has been SVG’s nightmare, with ovals exposing his inexperience despite four road wins earning him 22 playoff points. Moonhead is right. The schedule is stacked against him, and Bristol is tough for a road-course ace like SVG, who has never cracked the top 10 there in Xfinity either.

Spider wrapped it up, “But Bowman and Berry I think are very good and their teams have been very encouraging too, despite what we might have saw from Andrew past weekend. So yeah I think Shane and Austin Dillon are the guys had the most concerned about maybe Cindric and Chastain I would put in there as well. But yeah that’s where I’m at.”

Alex Bowman has rebounded in 2025 after a winless 2023, with Hendrick’s speed keeping him in the hunt. Berry’s consistency shines, while Austin Cindric plus 11 points and Ross Chastain have cooled. Chastain’s 2022 “Hail Melon” magic has not repeated, and Cindric’s Daytona 500 win has not translated to ovals. A half-decent night could swing it if those above him falter, but Moonhead’s “doomed” verdict looms large. Bristol is unlikely for a win, and his oval reps are too few to expect miracles.

Moonhead added, “So I’d say he’s doomed going into Bristol. I don’t see him winning Bristol but he’s only 15 back so theoretically he could have a half decent night in one of these guys right above the cut line. Could have a terrible night right out of the gate and he could have a fight and chance. But as far as the walk off goes I think Berry really out of those fours the only one he’s got a shot.”

SVG’s 15 points below the line isn’t insurmountable. Larson advanced from Bristol by two in 2022, and Suárez missed by four, but his lack of oval success makes a “walk-off” win improbable. Berry’s short-track background and Penske ties give him the edge in the bubble fight. For SVG, a clean Bristol run for stage points could keep him alive, but insiders’ consensus is bleak. The round has been a tough oval gauntlet, and Bristol is no savior for a road-course wizard like him.

SVG’s grass pass sparks NASCAR warning

While SVG’s playoff hopes fade, he and Trackhouse teammate Ross Chastain stirred controversy at Gateway’s Enjoy Illinois 300. After the checkered flag, both drove through the infield grass on cooldown laps, a move fans called out on social media as a ploy to add debris for post-race weight inspections. NASCAR didn’t take kindly. Brad Moran, Cup Managing Director, addressed it on SiriusXM, “We have rules that could put the teams in a real bad spot when we see that. So, we’ll make it pretty clear to them, moving forward, starting at Bristol, what that means.”

Mike Forde, Communications Managing Director, backed him on Hauler Talk, “We did not care for it, not one bit. We’re going to just remind teams that this is something where we actually have a rule. I think we’re going to give Trackhouse a little bit of a warning. But there is a rule that says what they did, you could argue, broke a rule, and there could have been repercussions for it.” Rule 6421.b puts cars under impound at the checkered flag, barring alterations before inspection.

The tactic involves picking up grass and rubber to hit minimum weight, a risky play in the playoffs where teams push the 17-pound tolerance. At Darlington, NASCAR checked every playoff car, finding some within a pound of disqualification. Alex Bowman’s 2024 Charlotte ROVAL DQ for failing weight served as a warning, and NASCAR will not ignore it forever.

As Bristol approaches, with no infield grass to tempt anyone, expect memos and stricter enforcement. For SVG and Chastain, both below the cutline, the stunt adds to their pressure. Clean racing and compliance are musts to survive the Round of 16.