Imagine entering the Chase as the driver everyone needs to beat, only to find yourself scrambling for a way back into the championship fight with three races left. That is the position Denny Hamlin finds himself in after Phoenix, where a costly afternoon left the No. 11 driver fourth in the standings, 31 points behind the leader. The title is still within reach, but the margin for error is shrinking fast. Fortunately for Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing crew chief Chris Gayle sees a reason not to give up just yet.

“It all plays out in the next three. It’ll play out. But it’s not over. Like those guys could have trouble. You could have the 19, the 5 and the 20 all have trouble in Talladega, and we’re right back in this. So that’s the only way you can look at it,” Chris Gayle said after the No. 11 team’s frustrating afternoon at Phoenix Raceway.

The Joe Gibbs Racing crew chief knows Denny Hamlin cannot afford many more setbacks. Hamlin’s postseason has been a frustrating mix of missed opportunities and bad luck. The No. 11 team entered the Chase with championship-winning potential, but it has struggled to turn promising performances into the results needed to maintain its position at the top.

Phoenix was the latest example. Hamlin collected 12 stage points and worked his way into fourth, putting himself in position to capitalize while Larson struggled. Then, on Lap 221, a right-rear tire failure forced the No. 11 Toyota to pit under green. The resulting caution left Hamlin a lap down, and a speeding penalty on pit road prevented him from taking the wave-around. He eventually finished 28th.

Despite the result, Hamlin gained 18 points on Larson, whose late crash limited him to just three points. However, the recovery was not enough to prevent Hamlin from slipping to fourth, 31 points behind the leader. Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe also remain ahead of him, leaving Hamlin needing to make up ground over the final three races.

That being said, why could Talladega’s chaos change everything? Well, Talladega is not a track where championship contenders can simply rely on their usual strengths and expect everything to go to plan. The 2.66-mile superspeedway’s tightly packed racing leaves drivers vulnerable to multicar accidents, and one mistake can sweep several title contenders out of contention. For Hamlin, that unpredictability is precisely what makes the upcoming race so important.

He has already experienced how Talladega’s chaos can work in his favor. In May 2014, Hamlin avoided multiple major accidents before overtaking Kevin Harvick on a restart with two laps left to claim his first victory at the superspeedway. A late crash behind the leaders helped bring the race to an end under caution, securing the win. The result also virtually guaranteed Hamlin a place in that year’s Chase, making it a relevant reminder of how surviving the chaos can pay off.

Six years later, Hamlin found himself celebrating at Talladega again after another chaotic afternoon. The October 2020 race featured multiple accidents and three overtime attempts, with several major contenders, including Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., caught up in trouble. Hamlin capitalized on the attrition and a strong late run to edge Matt DiBenedetto by just 0.023 seconds. That victory secured his place in the Round of 8, reinforcing how a superspeedway race can become a turning point in a championship campaign.

Hamlin’s rivals have also experienced how brutal Talladega can be. In the spring 2026 race, a 26-car pileup erupted on Lap 115 after contact sent leader Bubba Wallace toward the outside wall. Larson and Ryan Blaney were among those caught in the wreck, with Larson finishing 40th and Blaney 37th.

Both drivers lost the chance to collect a substantial points haul, demonstrating how quickly one incident can derail a championship contender’s afternoon. With Larson now leading Hamlin by 31 points and Blaney still in the title conversation, another major wreck could have significant consequences for the standings.

Of course, Hamlin cannot simply count on another wreck to rescue his title hopes. But his history at Talladega offers a reason to believe he can capitalize if the race turns unpredictable. Gayle specifically identified the No. 19 of Briscoe, the No. 5 of Larson and the No. 20 of Bell as potential victims of the superspeedway’s chaos. Trouble for any of those drivers could give Hamlin a valuable opening.

The 2026 Chase has already demonstrated how quickly the points can swing. Briscoe scored 75 points at Las Vegas after winning the race and sweeping both stages. Similarly, Larson managed 76 points, the maximum possible in a single race, after dominating at Kansas. These performances show how one strong afternoon can strengthen a driver’s championship position, just as one Talladega incident could undo weeks of progress.

With Martinsville and Homestead still to follow Talladega, Hamlin needs to make the most of every remaining opportunity. Gayle’s message is not that the No. 11 team can afford to wait for others to fail. It is that the championship fight is still alive, and if Talladega delivers the kind of chaos the crew chief anticipates, Hamlin must be ready to take advantage.