The Championship 4 battle has been a seesaw tango between the Hendrick and Gibbs racing camps for a handful of years now. The 2023 season looks set to continue this high-octane rivalry unless the regular season champ can get his act together. If he manages to do so, Hendrick Motorsports might find themselves a bit shorthanded come the Championship 4 showdown.

While we’re still three races away from the climactic cut down from 8 contenders to the final four, the JGR and HMS juggernauts have already locked horns. Unfortunately for Martin Truex Jr, this clash came at a steep cost. Don’t forget, it’s not just the drivers who are jockeying for glory; the owner playoffs are also in full swing. The Round of 8 elimination spelled misfortune for the No. 19 team, opening up a spot for the HMS No. 9 squad to sneak in.

Truex’s topsy-turvy road to the round of 8: is it all on him?

Martin Truex Jr. had lifted the Regular Season Championship with an air of confidence, making him an obvious contender for the 2023 title. However, his performance at Daytona was far from spectacular, with a disappointing 24th-place finish. It seemed like a one-off poor performance, especially considering his staggering 34-point finish average during the regular season.

Unfortunately, what initially seemed like a one-off bad stint soon transformed into a dark cloud over his championship aspirations, as Truex seemed to limp through the finish line, race after race, weekend after weekend. Bad luck just couldn’t seem to leave the 2017 champ alone. Joe Gibbs‘ once-shining star, who appeared poised to lift the Bill France Cup in Phoenix, became a black spot in JGR’s dominant postseason run.

Let’s break down the stats. Truex’s best post-season finish was a modest P17 in Texas, and his last top-10 performance was way back at Watkins Glen during the regular season. For seven races running, he’s been stuck in a rut. In fact, he’s become the first driver to advance to the Round of 8 with no top-10 finish. With three JGR drivers locked in the Round of 8, if Truex can turn the tide and leave his dismal 17.7 average point finish in the postseason behind, it could spell doom for the Hendrick camp. But, is it all about Truex’s struggle, or do the misfortunes of others play a role in his survival?

The Bristol showdown in the playoffs’ round of 16 elimination left defending champion Joey Logano with a brutal DNF next to his name. As the Penske ace languished in the garage, his championship hopes crumbled before his eyes. Sharing the same precarious fate was the 2014 champ from Tony Stewart‘s stable, Kevin Harvick, adding to the drama as playoff contenders faced the chopping block, giving Martin Truex Jr. a surprising lifeline.

Talladega‘s mammoth superspeedway emerged as the wild card in the Round of 12, sidelining formidable playoff contenders Brad Keselowski and Ross Chastain. Amid the chaos, Truex’s strength, fortified by his trusty Toyota machine, shone.

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While Denny Hamlin has been on turbocharge, putting on a spectacular show with his aggressive focus on the championship trophy, teammate Christopher Bell is not far behind. Although he sits 8 points below the cutline, his strong lap times on Saturdays have proven that the No. 20 Toyota will be among the frontrunners. His impressive speed has helped him secure pole positions for each of the three opening races of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

In contrast, Truex’s No. 19 car seems to have found a comfortable spot in the middle of the pack. Aside from his regular season dominance, which secured his playoff berth despite a string of bad runs, his consistency in finishing races has been his saving grace. With only one DNF to his name this season, Truex’s Toyota has consistently crossed the finish line.

Will Martin Truex Jr’s consistency trump Hendrick’s rollercoaster season?

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As the next three races loom on the horizon, it’s become clear that if the Hendrick cars face a dreaded DNF scenario, Truex Jr. is poised to capitalize. The Hendrick camp’s 2023 season has been a wild rollercoaster ride, akin to a car racing on only two of its four wheels. Two of their star drivers, 2020 champ Chase Elliott and early 2023 standings leader Alex Bowman, found themselves sidelined due to injuries, dashing their championship hopes.

Now, the weight of the Hendrick team rests on the shoulders of the current leader, William Byron, and the 2021 champ, Kyle Larson. The Hendrick Chevy cars have shown sparks of explosiveness, delivering strong finishes despite their tumultuous season. Yet, the upcoming four races seem to favor one contender above all.

Martin Truex Jr. has tasted victory at all the upcoming tracks – Las Vegas, Miami, Martinsville, and Phoenix and if he can regain his footing, Joe Gibbs will have plenty to smile about when they reach Phoenix. In Truex’s own words, he holds destiny in his hands for the next four races. Talking about the upcoming 4 races, “We have had a lot of success and have won races and they are kind of straightforward. I feel like you can control our destiny more so. I am looking forward to that and we look to get back on track after a tough playoff for us.”

Tooting Truex’s horn, Hamlin who is in hot pursuit of Truex in the championship standings, boasts an 11-point cushion to the cutline. In a recent episode of his ‘Actions Detrimental’ podcast, the No. 11 driver shared some words of wisdom and wit regarding Truex’s chances in this season’s title race. Hamlin quipped, “There’s something in my gut that feels like Truex is just going to fucking turn a switch on and all of a sudden be Truex. I’ll keep waiting.” 

Truex used to reign supreme on intermediate circuits, boasting a royal duo of victories in Las Vegas. Rewind the clock to 2017, and you’ll discover that he’s tallied an impressive 11 top-10 finishes in 12 consecutive races. With only three races left, the verdict on the four final contenders is about to be delivered. The question is, who are you throwing your weight behind as we buckle up for the wild ride in Nevada this weekend?

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