In the dominant shape that Toyota has showcased this season, Joey Logano has hidden somewhere in the shadows behind the field. The #22 has not been in Victory Lane this season so far. In fact, it hasn’t won a race since Texas last year, and while that did get him into championship contention, that simply wouldn’t be the case this year. As the season progresses, however, Logano seems to be drawing the smallest positives.

Joey Logano details the immense luck he needs this year

Logano is currently placed 12 in the standings with just 218 points. Compared to Tyler Reddick who’s already reaching 400 points, Logano is 168 points behind. Despite this point’s deficit, however, Logano seems to be calculating the maximum mathematical possibilities of climbing the table.

“If you have a solid race where you can score 40 plus points, top five all day long, right?” He told Todd Gordon. “And let’s say the #9, not wishing bad luck on anybody here. Let’s say he had a rack, or something went wrong, and he scored one or two, three points. All of a sudden, you’ve jumped that car that’s 5th from 12th.”

Understandably, this becomes a game of chance rather than strategy. He claimed that Chase Elliott’s massive gap in fifth place has come from just one race. However, it is also important to consider that he managed to win the race at Martinsville. Meanwhile, Joey Logano has been struggling for consistent top 10 finishes.

While he does understand that he cannot close the massive gap within one or two races, Logano is still attempting to stay rather optimistic.

“It takes time. It’s not going to all happen in one race. To say that we’re going to score that many more points on the #9 on one weekend, probably unrealistic, can happen. But it’s more going to be gaining five, 10 points a week out of those cars in front of us. And then you eventually get there,” he added.

Even though Logano and the rest of the #22 crew might begin improving later in the season, he seems to be missing out on one important aspect: the championship format.

Does Logano have enough races to improve?

From what he said, the Team Penske driver seems to claim that his on-track performance will eventually improve and that he has enough time. While that could be the case at the start of the season, it doesn’t seem to be that way right now.

Even so early into the season, there have been multiple winners, but more importantly, Reddick has won four races already. Considering how this format could play out later, this becomes an important aspect to challenge for the title. Drivers need to be far more consistent, something that has been missing from Logano’s portfolio for a long time. Moreover, they need that consistency in outperforming their challengers, too.

And for Logano, it seems that he is struggling within the team itself. Sure, Ford has only won one race right now, but it came from its teammate, Ryan Blaney. This is not a good sign, especially considering that he was also the contender at Bristol, and a very strong one.

So right now, not only is it important for Joey Logano to end his winless streak from 2025, but also deliver peak performances, with a few race wins, to have a realistic shot at the title. But at the end of the day, considering the performances he has been delivering this entire past year, it is tough to say if he will be a strong contender even if he manages to make the cut for the Chase.