At the World Wide Technology Raceway, Denny Hamlin put on a clinic, leading 75 laps and pulling away for a 1.62-second win in the Enjoy Illinois 300. His fifth victory of 2025, and Toyota’s 200th in Cup, had him feeling invincible, especially as he advanced to the Round of 12 for the seventh straight year. Firing up the St. Louis crowd with a signature burnout, Hamlin dropped a line that summed up his swagger: “You can either get on the bandwagon or you can get run over by it.”

It was classic Hamlin, cocky, confident, and ready to roll into New Hampshire with momentum. At Loudon, his stats are gold: three wins, 19 top-10s, and 798 laps led over 31 starts, good for a 9.9 average finish, which is the third most in the track’s history. Kevin Harvick was all-in on that bandwagon vibe last week, hyping Hamlin’s composure and calling him one of the playoff favorites. But then came the disastrous Bristol Night Race, and Harvick’s tune changed.

Kevin Harvick questions Denny Hamlin’s playoff edge

On the latest Happy Hour episode, Kaitlyn Vincie dove into Hamlin’s rough patch: “Speaking of issues, what about Denny Hamlin? Good thing he obviously has the win security there too, but he’s going to lose some crew members as we approach this next round from a right front tire falling off, a little troubling.” Hamlin’s Bristol tire woes, including a right-front failure that cost him time and drew a two-lap penalty for a loose wheel, left him scrambling.

NASCAR rules mandate crew suspensions for improper wheel securing, so the No. 11 enters New Hampshire without key over-the-wall members. Hence, Bristol’s chaos only amplified the pressure despite his Gateway win securing advancement.

Harvick did not sugarcoat it, “You know, I think it’ll be interesting to see how they fill that depth with the tire changer and whoever gets a vacation here, but definitely the wrong time of year to have that scenario happen because of the fact that you’re starting a new round of the playoffs. I think as you go to New Hampshire next week, you expect him to be one of those favorites. So you know that they’re going to be in a position with some pressure on them with somebody different up in that right-front area, so not ideal.”

New Hampshire’s flat one-mile “Magic Mile” is all about pit precision. Track position is tough to regain without flawless stops. Bell and Logano topped pit times last year and ran top-five, while Hamlin’s 2024 Loudon race unraveled after a slow stop. Losing tire changers now could spell disaster for Hamlin, who is strong at Loudon with three wins.

Harvick ramped up: “It’s the moment. Is this the moment that could affect Denny Hamlin’s championship run? I mean, that’s really what you have to ask, because New Hampshire’s most of them are going to come down to track position, pit strategy, executing on pit road, and you’re not going to win those races unless you have all that go your way.”

Hamlin’s career is littered with “what if” playoff moments, like his 2020 Phoenix title race, where pit adjustments could not keep pace with Chase Elliott. With 19 playoff appearances and 59 Cup Series wins, including crown jewels, Hamlin remains the biggest star without a championship. And a pit catastrophe at Loudon is something that will prove too costly.

He sealed the shift: “And so when you get to New Hampshire, you know, track position, pit strategies, you know. So it’s just inevitable that you’re going to have to have that to execute. So if you have one of those catastrophe-type pit stops, you have to ask yourself: Is this the moment that could take Denny Hamlin’s championship away?”

Hamlin’s 2025 inconsistency of four wins early, followed by a 6-race drought, has Harvick doubting his focus. Last week’s bandwagon jump praised Hamlin’s calm amid rivals’ collapses, but Bristol’s tire and pit failures flipped the script. With JGR strong, Briscoe thriving in the No. 19, Bell a contender in the No. 20, and Gibbs flashing in the No. 54, replacing Hamlin’s 59 wins will be tough. Harvick’s verdict is harsh: Hamlin’s prime is past, and 2025 is his last real shot, but pit woes could end it before Phoenix.

Brad Keselowski’s Bristol bump ties to Denny Hamlin’s pressure

While Harvick’s tone shift on Hamlin stings, the Bristol Night Race’s last-lap drama between Christopher Bell and Brad Keselowski adds context to the playoff grind. Bell held the lead, cruising to victory when Keselowski unleashed a classic bump-and-run in Turns 3 and 4, hitting hard to knock him off line.

Bell took it square on the bumper, stayed straight, and won by 0.343 seconds for his first Bristol points triumph. Keselowski’s desperation was real. RFK Racing has not won all season despite its firepower, and it has been close multiple times. “When I hit him, I was like, ‘Oh, no. I did not mean to hit him that hard,’” he admitted, but Bell’s composure turned it into clean racing.

Denny Hamlin called it out on Actions Detrimental: “I think Brad even admitted that. He said, ‘When I hit him, I was like, Oh, no. I did not mean to hit him that hard.’ So, um, that was as hard as I’ve seen someone get hit on a corner entry and not spin out.” Hamlin, who finished fourth but lost momentum from his tire issues, saw the hit as borderline. If Bell spun, it would not have been “clean.”

Keselowski’s aggression stemmed from RFK’s winless drought and sponsor pressure, but Bell’s save kept it respectful. Hamlin’s willingness to cut slack ties to his own playoff battles, where small moments like pit miscues could end his title chase. As New Hampshire looms, Hamlin’s focus on execution mirrors Keselowski’s gamble, but Harvick’s warning hangs heavy. Will the No. 11 rise or falter under the pressure?