Denny Hamlin’s been a NASCAR superstar for two decades, but the championship trophy’s always slipped through his fingers, earning him the nickname “black cat of death” for his playoff misfortunes. In 2010, he was poised to topple Jimmie Johnson’s reign, driving the No. 11 FedEx Toyota with eight wins and a 15-point lead heading into Homestead. But a spin after contact with Greg Biffle derailed him, leaving him 14th while Johnson snagged second and the title by 39 points. It was a gut-punch that lingered for years.

Fast-forward to 2014. NASCAR’s new elimination-style playoffs gave Hamlin a shot in the Championship 4 at Homestead against Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano. He led 50 laps and stayed in the hunt, but a risky call to stay out on old tires backfired. Harvick, with fresh rubber, stormed to the win and the title, leaving Hamlin seventh and empty-handed again. The new format demanded perfect execution, and Hamlin came up short.

In 2023, Hamlin’s three wins and 800-plus laps led showcased his speed, but a Homestead crash in the Round of 8 ended his run early, shocking fans given his dominance. Then, in 2024, despite victories at Darlington and Pocono, a Martinsville mechanical failure crushed his playoff dreams. Fans and analysts called it another “what could’ve been” year for a driver who’s been so close so often.

Now, 2025’s looking different. Kevin Harvick, a former rival and champ, is calling it Hamlin’s year. With a hot start and a team firing on all cylinders, the stars might finally align for the No. 11. Hamlin’s weathered bad luck for 21 years, but Harvick’s betting on him to break through. The buzz around Hamlin’s title shot is real, and Harvick’s got some thoughts on what’s fueling it.

Harvick’s advice on strategy, Focus, and seizing the moment

On the latest Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour podcast, Harvick broke down why 2025 could be Denny Hamlin’s championship year. “And I think that this was somewhat of a strategy race, and I think Chris, Gayle, and those guys made good calls. They put him in position, made a couple of bold decisions there in the middle of the race to put themselves in a position at the end,” Harvick said. He’s pointing to the No. 11 team’s sharp strategy, with new crew chief Chris Gayle stepping in after Chris Gabehart’s shift to Competition Director. Despite early doubts, Hamlin’s been on fire. Two wins, five top-5s, six top-10s, and 308 laps led in just nine races by mid-April show he’s back in top form.

Harvick also noted the off-track noise. “He already knows where he stands from the legal problems that they have at 23XI, and they know where that battle is headed, right? Like that’s headed to December. Those are the things that are going to happen.” The 23XI Racing antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR, set for trial in December, is a known factor. Unlike last year’s playoff chaos, where a rough Atlanta start killed Hamlin’s momentum, Harvick sees a focused team ready to push past distractions. Consistency and chemistry are key, and Hamlin’s got both.

Looking ahead, Harvick said, “It’s on a roll of positives here for Denny, and we’ve got Iowa, Glenn, Richmond, Daytona left headed into the playoffs. If we can just keep the wheels on it for four weeks without any crazy news that he has to deal with outside of what he’s already dealing with.” With back-to-back wins at Martinsville and Darlington, plus a Dover victory in July (his fourth of 2025), Hamlin is building serious momentum. Harvick believes if the team stays drama-free through this crucial stretch, Hamlin’s got a real shot.

Finally, Harvick hit the big picture. “You can say what you want, but the primary focus is winning that championship. His legacy is going to be great regardless of whether he wins it. But the determination to win that championship is the primary focus, whether he says it or not. Whether he wins 60 or 80 races, whatever that number is, doesn’t matter. That championship adds a whole other layer to his legacy. He’s never been better positioned to go out and do that than right now.”

Hamlin charts the future of 23XI racing

While Hamlin chases that championship, he’s also steering 23XI Racing toward a bright future. Bubba Wallace’s Brickyard 400 win, outlasting Kyle Larson through a rain delay and two overtime restarts, locked the No. 23 into the playoffs and marked the team’s first victory of 2025.

Hamlin, a co-owner, sees Tyler Reddick’s strong points position as a near-certain playoff ticket, but the focus is on getting third driver Riley Herbst a win. “It’s the first time for our team to have two cars that are likely to get in. That’s a milestone. So our next objective is to get a win with Riley. Obviously, with him learning, Daytona is probably going to be his best shot.” Hamlin said.

Hamlin’s high on Wallace’s playoff potential, saying, “He can do it. He can go on a deep run. He did that before he became the new Bubba that I know now.” With new crew chief Charles Denike, a former U.S. Army member whose leadership has impressed even Michael Jordan, Wallace is a bigger threat than his 2023 10th-place finish suggests.

Hamlin loves the team’s unity. Drivers, crew chiefs, and staff work across all three cars without silos. Getting all three into the playoffs would be a massive flex, especially amid the ongoing NASCAR lawsuit. 23XI’s on-track success, from Wallace’s Indy triumph to Reddick’s consistency, shows they’re built to weather the legal storm and keep pushing forward.