As NASCAR’s 2025 playoffs approach the penultimate race at Martinsville Speedway, the championship field begins to take shape. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have already clinched their spot in the Championship 4 with commanding wins at Las Vegas and Talladega, displaying strong form and setting the bar high for others.

Meanwhile, the other two spots remain fiercely disputed, with Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell holding thin leads above the playoff cutline. As these seasoned racers prepare for Martinsville’s demanding half-mile track, their playoff fates hang precariously in the balance, setting the stage for an intense elimination battle.

Drivers below the cutline ahead of Martinsville

As the final NASCAR playoff elimination race looms, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson lead the standings narrowly. Bell sits 37 points above the cutoff, Larson right on his tail at 36 points. Below the line are William Byron (-36), Joey Logano (-38), Ryan Blaney (-47), and Chase Elliott (-62), with a Martinsville victory keeping their hopes alive.

All four drivers below the cutline have historic success at Martinsville: Byron won in 2022 and 2024, Joey Logano in 2018, Ryan Blaney in 2023 and 2024, and Chase Elliott in 2020. This dynamic creates a volatile scenario: a win by any below-the-line driver leaves a breathing space for only one more to qualify on points, intensifying the pressure on Bell and Larson to deliver strong finishes or win themselves.

Can Christopher Bell clinch without a winner below the cutline?

Bell’s comfortable 37-point cushion provides a rare buffer, but it comes with caveats. If none of the drivers below the cutline win, Bell can clinch a Championship 4 berth with a solid finish at Martinsville. His consistent performance on short tracks and a pole and second-place finish at Martinsville’s spring race suggest he can stay composed under pressure.

Plus, having his teammates, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe, who have already qualified for the final 4, possibly help him in the race, will add to his chances. And Joe Gibbs Racing had displayed this at Talladega, when Ty Gibbs pushed Briscoe to snatch the win.

“I think realistically, we left Talladega in as good a position point-wise as we could hope for, and Martinsville was a fantastic track for us in the spring. Christopher Bell has won at Martinsville, he’s won a cut-off race at Martinsville, and he’s Christopher Bell. I don’t need to say any more than that. That guy is tenacious, and (we) look forward to making it three JGR cars in the final at Phoenix,” JGR competition director Chris Gabehart said about Bell’s chances of making it to the NASCAR playoffs.

However, a win from Byron, Logano, Blaney, or Elliott would reduce Bell’s advantage, jeopardizing his spot in the final 4. He will have to score really high but that too cannot guarantee the points scenario. It’s only right now that he’s at the best place in terms of points. He’ll focus on avoiding any silly mistakes and maximizing every point available.

Will Kyle Larson secure his spot if a winner emerges below the cutline?

Larson sits just one point behind Bell and faces a precarious situation if a lower-ranked driver wins at Martinsville. As a known short-track specialist, Larson has the skills and past success to secure a win or high finish, but he must balance aggression with tactical racing to protect his slim lead.

Larson’s previous challenges, including a costly fuel miscalculation and late-season pressures, underscore how quickly fortunes can turn in the NASCAR playoffs. If a winner comes from below the line, Larson must at least do better than Bell and others to hold his place.

“I feel like we’re back to a very similar spot of where we were up to May,” Larson told reporters on his outlook towards the race. Racing Insights has given Kyle Larson an 81.8% probability to move to the final four, the highest of the playoff bubble drivers.

Which driver will seize the final spot in the Championship 4?

With four talented drivers vying for a single final slot, Martinsville promises an electrifying showdown. Byron, Logano, Blaney, and Elliott each bring prior Martinsville wins and distinct strengths that could propel them into victory lane. Their need for a win fuels urgency but also risk-taking, which could let us see some dramatic on-track clashes.

Meanwhile, Bell and Larson’s survival hinges on calculated racing and strong finishes. The closing laps at Martinsville will not only determine who advances but likely shape the championship narrative heading to Phoenix’s season finale. Fans and insiders alike will watch closely as this high-stakes drama unfolds at one of NASCAR’s most historic venues.