The South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was a nail-biter down to the wire. Around Lap 260, Chase Briscoe clung to a half-second lead over Kyle Larson, with Denny Hamlin charging hard on the outside. By Lap 263, Hamlin’s fresher tires powered him past Briscoe, snatching the lead with just four laps to go.

It was a gutsy move that locked Hamlin into the Championship 4, leaving Larson to settle for second, 1.533 seconds back, and Christopher Bell grabbing third after a late pass on Briscoe. The Vegas showdown reshaped the playoff picture, and Larson’s post-race words showed a driver who knows the title fight’s slipping away.

Kyle Larson hands Denny Hamlin the Edge

In the post-race presser, Kyle Larson didn’t mince words: “Yeah, I mean, I think you know the 12 had a bad day. The other 22 didn’t win. So right now, as long as the Team Penske car doesn’t win the next two races or I wouldn’t say that they’re not in must-win. But you know, obviously, we don’t want to see them win because they will be crazy fast at Phoenix.”

Larson’s sizing up the field like a chess master. Ryan Blaney’s early Vegas tire blowout, crashing out for a single point, tanked his title hopes, dropping him 34 points below the cutline. Joey Logano’s sixth kept him alive but 24 points back. Hamlin’s win, though, punched his Phoenix ticket, making him the man to beat.

“So if they don’t make it, then yeah, I think it’s wide open. I think the 11 is the only one guaranteed right now, so he would be the favorite, but you know, hopefully we can get in there because I do feel like you know,” Larson added.

He’s got a point. Hamlin’s Vegas masterclass, leading late and holding off Larson’s No. 5, makes JGR’s No. 11 the title favorite. Larson’s second-place finish, leading 129 laps, locked his own Championship 4 spot, but he’s giving props to Hamlin’s execution. The Hendrick driver knows Phoenix is JGR’s playground. Hamlin’s got three wins there and a 10.2 average finish.

“That’s an area where we have closed the gap a lot with them and maybe surpassed JGR on our flat track program. You know Iowa as well. New Hampshire was good. Richmond was better than we typically are. So yeah, I think I think we’re getting better,” Larson said.

His confidence in Hendrick’s flat-track game and tracks like Vegas, Iowa, and Richmond shows his Vegas performance. Leading the most laps with killer long-run speed, Larson proved his No. 5 is peaking. But Hamlin’s late-race tire advantage and bold pass stole the show, leaving Larson to tip his cap to a rival who’s now the one to chase in Phoenix.

Larson’s Vegas loss ties straight into the chaos awaiting at Talladega, where he knows anything can happen.

Talladega’s wild card looms

“We’ll just try and go and execute like we have been this year at those places. Hopefully, we can have another good points day, and maybe Martinsville will be a little bit easier. I know right now it shows plus 35; somebody below the cut line wins. It’s a lot less. Playoff is crazy,” he said.

Sitting third with a 35-point cushion, Larson’s in decent shape, but Talladega’s a beast. His 21.0 average finish in 21 starts, with just three top-fives, screams volatility. A wreck could slash his buffer, especially if a desperate Blaney or Logano steals a win.

Larson’s banking on his team’s superspeedway gains in 2025. Hendrick’s draft game has levelled up, with strong runs at Daytona and Atlanta. But Talladega’s pack racing is a crapshoot; one bad move, and you’re collecting a single point like Blaney in Vegas.

Larson’s eyeing a clean run to set up Martinsville, where he’s golden: a 15.5 average finish, seven top-fives, and a 2023 win. “Hopefully, we can have another good points day,” he said, knowing a solid Talladega could make Martinsville his ticket to Phoenix.

The Vegas sting hurts, but Larson’s not out. Hamlin’s win puts him ahead, but Larson’s flat-track gains and playoff savvy keep him in the fight. Talladega’s wild card could flip the script. Blaney’s got to win, Logano’s clawing, and Larson’s just trying to survive the chaos.

If he can dodge the wrecks and bank points, Martinsville’s his shot to lock in and challenge Hamlin’s title grip. For now, Larson’s conceding the favorite’s role to the No. 11, but his eyes are on Phoenix, where he’s got one win and a hunger to even the score.