And it all comes down to two races now: the round-of-8 finisher at Martinsville and the Grand Finale at Phoenix Raceway. The playoffs play a huge role in deciding the future of the drivers and their teams and the relationship between their teams and the sponsors. On that note, once an athlete makes it into the playoffs, and most importantly, makes it to the championship race, the pressure is overwhelming for a different reason.

When someone qualifies for Championship 4 and yet fails to win, it hurts more than it could have hurt if he hadn’t qualified for the playoffs. It’s like being on par with the winner, but still not quite there. However, that can wait till this weekend, when the entire community will know the names of the remaining two contenders who will join Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell in the final dash for the cash.

The lurking danger for the Joe Gibbs Racing duo from Kyle Larson

When Christopher Bell won last week’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the number 20 team was elated at the mere thought of appearing in the top 4 for the second time in a row. However, for Bell’s teammates, the day wasn’t as they had expected it to be. Martin Truex Jr. went from starting from the pole to getting ousted from the competition owing to an engine failure. And for Denny Hamlin, things weren’t any better.

Hamlin rammed his #11 Toyota into the wall on lap 236 due to a steering issue and, hence, lost a precious shot at reserving his seat in the most coveted race of the Cup Series. Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin sat first and second at the end of the regular season before the points were reset. How unfortunate it is to even think that these two seasoned drivers are both at a 17-point deficit from the cutline!

If Denny Hamlin wins at Martinsville, he will make it in, but Martin Truex Jr. will most likely be eliminated as it will all come down to points for him. And if it’s the other way around, the JGR star faces the same fate. But what if none of the two happens?

Picture this: Kyle Larson replicates his Martinsville from April of this year. Both Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. will fight each other on points. Larson’s teammate William Byron, who has won the series-highest of six races this year, is 30 points ahead of Hamlin and Truex and 20 points ahead of Ryan Blaney, who sits just in the cutline.

Unless the number 24 driver has any major issues with his Chevy next week, he could put up tough competition for the 3rd spot in the championship. And that would leave Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Truex, and Tyler Reddick below the cutline. Anything after that will be solely decided on points.

Watch this story: Kyle Larson’s Uncertainty Ahead of ROVAL Elimination Race

Tyler Reddick has a 7-point advantage over his boss, JGR driver Denny Hamlin, and Truex. So one of the JGR duos has to win, and the other has to overcome the point deficit and then gather enough points to hold off Blaney, Reddick, and Chris Buescher, who are 43 points below the cutline. Let’s look into the chances of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. making it to Phoenix on November 5.

A showdown between teammates

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Denny Hamlin’s back is now against the wall. He hasn’t been able to finish anywhere better than P11 in four of his last seven Martinsville races. Nevertheless, the JGR No. 11 driver had a P5 finish last fall and a P4 finish this spring at the Virginian Paperclip. Moreover, the 23XI Racing co-owner has 5 wins at this half-mile racetrack, besides his dominant performance last year, where he led 203 laps and won both stages. But Martin Truex Jr. is in no way lagging behind.

The number 19 Toyota Camry pilot has won 3 of the last 8 races at Martinsville Speedway. In his last 12 starts, he has 8 top-5 finishes at the tight-cornered racetrack.

Will it be a points battle between Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr, or will it be a points battle between any one of these two and the other drivers in and above the bubble? The wait continues. Do let us know your predictions for the Xfinity 500!

Kyle Larson Claims Yet Another Championship Win Amidst His Worsening Playoff Misery