A sixth-place finish at the Charlotte oval was Kyle Larson’s worst result in six of the ten Chase races. Had it not been for Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe’s dominant runs, the HMS driver might have stretched his lead even further. He has a 49-point advantage over Denny Hamlin, and many believe that if he maintains this edge after two more races, he could seal the championship before Homestead. But Larson has identified one track that could deliver a new twist in an already exciting title race.
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“Phoenix is difficult for us lately, the last three or four races there. Hopefully, we can hit on something a little more competitive to score some points and then yeah Talladega can go either way. So we just go there and try to do a good job. You can’t get ahead of yourself,” Larson said in a post-race interview at Charlotte.
Phoenix hasn’t been the worst track for the No. 5 team, but they haven’t been able to convert good speed into wins at the flat oval. In the Next Gen era, he’s finished only one race (the 2024 spring event) outside the top 10. Meanwhile, in his last four starts, he’s bagged consecutive top-five finishes. On paper, these statistics indicate that the No. 5 HMS Chevy is really strong at Phoenix, but that isn’t entirely true.
Despite four consecutive top-five finishes, Larson has led just 13 laps—a stark contrast to Bell and Blaney’s multiple wins at the same track. Joey Logano also won the 2022 and 2024 championships by clinching the finale races. Larson is also keeping an eye on JGR’s comeback, especially that of the No. 19 team.
“The only surprising part to me was that Briscoe and his team did a really good job there. Obviously a great pit stop, some good restarts and I fought off Bell, who had the best cars. So Briscoe their team did a really good job. They’ve dug themselves out of the big hole.”
And there is a possibility that Briscoe could go for three wins in a row. He also has a Phoenix win to his name from 2022. Team Penske has always been strong at the flat ovals, and JGR Toyotas also know how to get the job done at this tricky racetrack. Larson is the lone driver from the HMS camp leading the title charge, which is why there’s more pressure on him to deliver—or, better yet, not squander the lead he’s built over the first six races of the Chase.
“The JGR cars in general are gonna be really good at Phoenix. I know [crew chief] James [Small] is super excited that we’re going there. Yeah, I feel really good about it. Just where were at as a race team right now, there’s really not been a single type of racetrack we’ve been to that we’ve not been fast,” Briscoe said on the Dale Jr. Download after the Charlotte win.
The upcoming races at Phoenix and Talladega could flip the title race on its head. Even if Larson manages to stay clean and somewhat maintain his lead at Phoenix, the race at Talladega could be a hit or miss. Larson has been winless at Talladega’s high banks throughout his storied career. This is precisely why JGR Toyotas and Penske Fords are eyeing the next two races as opportunities to stake their claims.
Despite knowing that the No. 5 team isn’t the favorite at the next two tracks, Cliff Daniels isn’t planning to tweak the team’s approach. Larson is expected to remain aggressive, look for opportunities to maximize his results, and play to his strengths to continue his dominant run in the Chase.
Daniels got a reality check and was surprised to see the No. 20 car unload with so much speed at Charlotte.
“We can’t just sit back and cruise. I think, if we took that mindset of playing a little too conservative or too cautious, that’s just not gonna have you stay sharp when you really have to execute. We’ve built our way through the season to get to this point; there’s been a lot of learning along the way. I think we’ve got to stay true to ourselves and keep marching forward.”
Larson and his team aren’t invincible, as was evident at Charlotte. And knowing how the upcoming two races could decide the fate of the championship, expect more and more teams to get extra aggressive at Phoenix and Talladega. It is going to be interesting to see how the No. 5 team manages this tough stretch.