When Kyle Larson won the 2025 Championship, fans and the NASCAR community had a lot of hopes and expectations from both Larson and Hendrick Motorsports for next season. What followed next was a trend that no one saw coming as HMS struggled to keep up against it’s rival. And at Iowa, things took a turn for worse.

Kyle Larson after having a strong start to the race started to fall behind in stage 2. And then crashed into his teammate Alex Bowman.

Race at Iowa was supposed to be a rebound opportunity for HMS. Kyle Larson qualified second and finished stage 1 in third, looking like a genuine contender to snap his winless streak at lowa. But after restarting at lap 149, alongside John Hunter Nemechek, Shane Van Gisbergen and Alex Bowman, things went downhill for Larson.

Larson tired to check up after getting loose on the track and made contact with No. 48 and unfortunately, both Chevy were slammed into the outside wall. Bowman was ruled out on the spot, on the other hand Larson went 16 laps down and was eventually out of the race.

Alex Bowman was heard taking out his frustration on radio saying, “We’re f—destroyed.”

However, Larson later blamed John Hunter Nemechek for shoving him up the track and creating four-wide moment.

According to Steven Taranto’s post on X, Larson asked on the radio, “Did someone jam it in on him (John Hunter Nemechek) or could he not hold it down like normal?

“To which larsons spotter replied “”(Nemechek) said he downshifted and it got stuck in neutral” after this larson took a sarcastic jab at Nemechek saying “Cool. Cool. Professional.”

However, the end results left HMS two top drivers left Iowa with disappointment and a DNF and a near last finish respectively. According to Frontstrech.com through the fives races that made NASCAR’s in-season challenge, HMS drivers combined for just for top-10s.

Surprisingly a week before lowa at Indianapolis one of the HMS cars finished in the top-10 and unfortunately this was their third race with no place in top-10s team wide.

Both Chase Elliot and Kyle Larson suffered tire related issues at Indy finishing 37th and 39th, Alex bowman and William Byron managed to finish 19th and 21st.

By late July, even after announcing his 2027 retirement Alex Bowman was the only HMS driver with multiple top-10 in the five race stretch.

Is HMS struggling due to Chevy body change?

Chevrolet introduced an updated camaro ZL1 body this season with a re-designed front grille, a larger power dome and more aggressive rocker panels.

The only aim of this new change was to improve the front end Downforce and aerodynamic efficiency and stability.

As reported by Techtimes.com Kevin Harvick also broke down the HMS issues and explained it plainly as that the new body appeared to have thrown Hendrick “for a little bigger loop than everybody anticipated as far as the balance goes.”

He further added “I don’t know that we have ever gone this far into a season and them not being in contention to win these races by dominating an event so far,” Harvick said.

Even Denny Hamlin expressed that he is not able to believe that NASCAR’s one of the most winning teams is struggling and is now no more the most dominated team this season.

“I looked at their graphic after the race. Stewart-Haas, they were getting beat like a drum in their comments the last year of their existence. The old Hendrick bros, they’re starting to get in there. They need to have a Snickers. They’ve not been [themselves] in a while. It’s not really indicative of their speed. They’ve always got a couple cars that are in the top five or near the top five. But just the standard [that] we expect from Hendrick Motorsports from the legacy, we expect lots of race wins. When I see William Byron in 12th [in points], that’s mind-boggling to me.” Hamlin said on his Action detrimental podcast.

Hendrick Motorsports decline in 2026 is speaking for itself after all the existing historical standards of their own. HMS has been the most winning team in modern NASCAR with multiple championships and consistent top-3 finishes.

But how is HMS’s downfall is beneficial and healthy for NASCAR? Because it breaks the a view of a fixed hierarchy and image of “dominant” team. This makes the championship competition and fight even more unpredictable and fair.

This brings hope and motivation for the emerging teams and drivers to contend and compete. Historically, NASCAR has always benefited when dominant teams hit slump. This allows new players to emerge and create a new storyline.

How JGR has been dominating the the season

Joe Gibbs racing has turned 2026 season into a masterclass of consistency and speed and of course victories. JGR drivers like Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs have been regular winners and are Top-3 contenders.

Ty Gibbs won his second win of 2026 seasons at lowa after recovering from a bad pit stop to hold off teammate Christopher Bell by 0.253 seconds.

“It just took us a little bit to figure out what I needed and what I needed in the team, and now we got it,” Gibbs said in his post-race news conference as reported by fox sports.

JGR’s Toyota package has been more stable and predictable over long runs allowing them to manage tires and balance better than many rivals.

It’s now safe to say that JGR has became the benchmark now because when the race settles it’s clearly visible that they’re fighting for the victory lane. Hamlin is leading the points standing with a 100 points buffer, and Ty Gibbs is placed 2nd.

And apparently JGR is not the only one in the spotlight Ford has also made a comeback. After years of catching up to Chevy and Toyota, team Penske and Ryan Blaney have managed to overcome the early season jitters.

Ryan Blaney opened his 2026 victory account with his 18th career win at phoenix defeating Ty Gibbs and Christopher Bell. And this comeback was continued with a victory at Atlanta which secured fords 750th cup series victory. This result came after seven top 10 finishes in a row.

After Iowa, Blaney finds himself third in the points standings just below the JGR Toyotas.

Is HMS winning as much as its rivals are winning alone?

So far HMS has only 2 wins in 2026 and both are by Chase Elliott, on the other hand drivers from smaller and mid-tier teams have matched or exceeded expectations

Corey Heim has won 2 times so far in 2026 and it’s just his 15th cup career start, and Ryan Blaney also has 2 back to back victories.

Heim was a truck driver before, so his performance is definitely something to talk about because it has been impressive to see how quickly he caught the pace and also secured 2 victories in 2026 season.

But why is this comparison relevant? Because HMS has been known as powerhouse team of modern nascar with one of the best drivers and racing experience. But apart from Elliott, none of the teams have made a splash or really contended for race wins.

What’s even more surprising is the fact the Spire Motorsports, who rely on HMS through their alliance are out performing them. They have two wins a piece for Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez. And there was a time when Hocevar was the lead Chevy driver in the points tally.

For some reason, Spire seems to have figured out a way to make speed with the new Chevy body. But Hendrick Motorsports is still searching for answers.

How the Chase format change might have played a factor

NASCAR returned to the Chase format that were last used in 2004-2013, and also new stage break rules have also been implemented from the last race at lowa Speedway which will now continue for the rest of the 2026 season.

These changes can for sure affect how teams used to approach the season before under the old playoff format. Teams that used to rely on “win-you’re in ” to rescue a bad regular season, can no longer count on that.

Now for a team like HMS, who have shown poor race execution, any bad finishes and DNF will hurt even more because that will impact each and every point that requires to be in Chase eligibility.

On contrast, JGR’s consistency of wins and top finishes and strong stage results makes them perfect for Chase eligibility. They are likely to gain an advantage when Chase begins and they have the points buffer.

The top seed heading in the Chase will have a 25 point advantage and this advantage shrinks further down the pecking order. Apart from Chase Elliott, none of the HMS teams looks like a genuine championship contender. And that is unlike Hendrick Motorsports.

All hopes are not lost, just yet. With three regular season races, and the entire 10-race Chase coming up, HMS has time to move in the right direction. Consistent top 10 speeds and better execution from the drivers could see them get back in title contention. But even for the most optimistic HMS fans it is hard to see them bounce back in such a short span of time.