NASCAR brought back a format designed to keep more drivers alive deep into the championship. But Larson’s consistency is slowly thinning the field of genuine challengers. The Chase may still have six races left, yet the list of drivers who can realistically threaten the Hendrick Motorsports star is shrinking with every strong finish. Dale Earnhardt Jr. can see where this is heading. And he is beginning to worry that by the time the Chase reaches Homestead, the championship could be wrapped up.

“Even though there’s a mathematical shot, as these races go by and as Larson’s having such good success, we’re losing a lot of guys. We’re looking around in the trenches and man, there’s a lot of dudes taking out. We only got a few other guys still standing firing back,” Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s assessment of the Chase standings on the Dale Jr. Download podcast captures the uncomfortable reality developing around Kyle Larson.

The Chase has not reached the point where most of the field is officially out of the championship. But Larson’s ability to consistently maximize his points is creating another kind of elimination. Drivers remain alive on paper while the size of the deficit makes the road ahead increasingly difficult.

After Kansas, Larson’s lead over Denny Hamlin stood at 26 points. Christopher Bell is 50 points behind, Joey Logano 67 points back, and Ryan Blaney 91 points behind the leader. Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick and Chase Briscoe rounded out the next three positions at 94, 111 and 123 points back, respectively.

Those numbers matter because the gap is not distributed evenly. Hamlin remains close enough that one strong weekend could put him directly back into the fight. Bell is also within range, although his own assessment after Kansas (that he needed to win three races to have a chance at the championship) showed how much more pressure comes with falling 50 points behind.

For Logano and Blaney (and others down the line), the equation is considerably more demanding. Logano has 67 points to make up, while Blaney needs to recover 91. With six races remaining, neither deficit is insurmountable. However, neither driver can afford to simply match Larson’s results. They need to consistently outscore him, preferably by producing wins and strong stage-point hauls while Larson has a comparatively quiet stretch.

That is where the Kansas result becomes important. Larson did not merely win. He collected every available bonus along the way, sweeping both stages and earning the fastest-lap bonus to score 76 points, the maximum possible total under the current system. Every other driver in the Chase lost ground to him that afternoon.

For instance, Hamlin finished third and scored 51 points, a result that would normally be considered a major championship boost. Instead, he gave up another 25 points to Larson. Similarly, Logano had an even tougher afternoon. Starting from the pole after qualifying was washed out, he finished 20th and dropped from third to fourth in the standings. Blaney, meanwhile, finished fifth and moved into fifth place overall. However, he still ended the afternoon with 91 points behind Larson after being just 52 points behind him before the race.

That is the distinction Dale Jr. is getting at. A driver does not necessarily have to suffer a disastrous race to disappear from the championship picture. Sometimes a solid result simply is not enough when the leader is collecting points at the maximum rate.

The danger is that more drivers could find themselves in the same position before the championship reaches Homestead. Larson has not knocked the other drivers out. He has simply kept scoring at a rate that forces everyone behind him to produce something exceptional just to stay within reach.

That is what Dale Jr. means when he talks about losing guys in the trenches. The Chase can still contain plenty of mathematical possibilities. But if Larson continues separating himself from the field, the number of drivers with a genuinely credible path to the championship will keep getting smaller.

And for Logano and Blaney (and others), the task is already clear. They need to start taking points back before the gap becomes a problem they can no longer solve.