The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway pits two racing titans, Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) and Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota), against one another for the Bill France Cup. HMS fields Kyle Larson and William Byron, while JGR includes Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe. The 1-mile, flat oval sets for a dramatic, tactical race where the first of these four drivers to cross the finish line will be crowned the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.

Hamlin’s recent race pace and Hendrick Motorsports camp’s strategy suggest that the battle for the championship trophy will ultimately come down to Larson and Hamlin, with Larson’s experience in this specific winner-take-all format likely giving him the edge for a second Cup Series title. But what are the true odds for each driver?

Finally, the year of the uncrowned king: Denny Hamlin?

Denny Hamlin has been the statistical behemoth of the 2025 season, leading the field with six victories and notching an impressive 14 top-5s. After suffering three straight years of heartbreak in the Round of 8, he’s back for his fifth shot at the Championship 4, a figure that is hard to ignore. His win a Las Vegas secured his spot early, giving him extra time to focus on the Phoenix setup.

However, the narrative around Hamlin is his 0-for-4 record in past Championship 4 attempts and his recent mechanical woes. Engine issues at Martinsville and Talladega are a haunting reminder of the quality control problems that have sometimes plagued his team in the playoffs. While he has two career wins at Phoenix, his Next Gen-era performance averages out to a 10.9 finish, solid but not dominant.

Bookmakers have him as the prohibitive favorite at +210, a testament to his sheer speed, but the historical and recent mechanical fragility hangs over the No. 11 JGR car like a dark cloud.

Championship debut of the Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe

Chase Briscoe is the underdog of the Championship 4, proving his mettle with a career-defining season. He has undergone a significant transformation, not just statistically, but strategically, winning a stunning seven pole awards in 2025, the most by any driver since 2017. His three victories, including a crucial win at Talladega, showcase his ability to perform when it matters most.

Importantly, Briscoe has a Next Gen win at Phoenix (Spring 2022), which provides a psychological advantage that the other title contenders lack in the Next Gen era at the track. However, his overall average finish of 15.6 at Phoenix in the Next Gen car is the weakest of the four, including a disastrous 35th-place finish earlier this season after an early wreck.

As the only first-time Championship 4 driver, the pressure of the moment will be immense. His odds are the longest at +375, cementing his role as the surprise spoiler who has nothing to lose.

Proving ground for the regular-season champion: William Byron

William Byron has been the model of consistency and long-run speed all season, earning the regular-season title. His season is defined by his remarkable ability to lead laps, topping the Cup Series with 1,278 laps led. He is a precision driver who won the regular-season title on the strength of his consistency.

His most powerful asset is his Phoenix track record with the Next Gen car, boasting the best average finish of 8.0 and a win from the Spring 2023 race. After two consecutive third-place finishes in the final standings, this marks his third straight Championship 4 appearance. His dramatic, dominating win at Martinsville to punch his ticket demonstrates immense clutch ability.

His only real vulnerability has been his recent results consistency in the Round of 8 before Martinsville, with a 36th at Las Vegas and a 25th at Talladega. He sits third in the odds at +260, making him a very serious and highly consistent contender.

The Hendrick Motorsports’ phenom’s return: Kyle Larson

The only former champion in the field, Kyle Larson, possesses raw, unmatched talent but has been fighting an uncharacteristic mid-season slump. The 2021 Cup Series Champion is the ultimate wildcard. He is the only driver to clinch his spot on points rather than a win in Round 8, a fact that highlights his consistency and his longest winless drought in his Hendrick Motorsports tenure of 23 races.

All three of his 2025 wins came in the first 12 races. Despite the long winless streak, Larson is the most recent Cup Series Champion and has been quietly generating momentum, notching 3 top-5s in the last 4 races, including a 5th-place finish at Martinsville to squeak into the final. Crucially, his single Phoenix career win came in the 2021 Championship Race.

In the Next Gen car, he had two third-place finishes at Phoenix, with an average finish of 10.1. He and crew chief Cliff Daniels know how to win a one-race title. As the most recent champion and a driver whose “bad” season still lands him in the final four, he is the second favorite at +240.

Championship outlook: the final verdict

The odds paint a picture of a tight race, with the difference between the favorite (Hamlin) and the 2nd-longest shot (Byron) being very narrow. The best Next Gen track record belongs to William Byron. The best overall season is that of Denny Hamlin. The most championship pedigree belongs to Kyle Larson, and the best current momentum is that of Byron once again.

The final race often comes down to who executes flawlessly on the day, but William Byron appears to have the most favorable combination of track history and recent, dominant form. Denny Hamlin’s speed and experience make him a threat, but the specter of past title failures and recent mechanical issues is a real concern.

Ultimately, whether it’s Byron’s momentum, Hamlin’s speed, Larson’s experience, or Briscoe’s upset run, only one will pass Sunday’s test.