NASCAR’s inaugural In-Season Challenge is heating up, with $1 million on the line and only eight drivers left vying for glory. Among them is Zane Smith, the consistent Front Row Motorsports contender from California, set to battle in Sunday’s round at Sonoma Raceway. But it’s not that easy. One Joe Gibbs Racing driver stands in his way. A finish ahead of Joe Gibbs’ grandson helps Smith advance to the bracket and move closer to the million‑dollar prize, making it the defining moment of his 2025 Cup campaign.

Zane Smith has quietly crafted a strong 2025 season behind the wheel of the No. 38 Ford. While he may not yet have a Cup Series win to his name, he has shown real progress, clinching his first career Cup pole at Talladega in April and banking several solid top tens in unsettled circumstances. His consistency is hovering just outside the playoff cut line, 269 points behind the leader and holding 24th in the standings, firmly in contention if he can keep the momentum going.

But it’s the In-Season Challenge by Smith that has really captured headlines. After shocking Austin Cindric in round 1 at Atlanta, he stunned Chris Buescher on the streets of Chicago in Round 2, stringing together surprising upsets despite lower seating. With each upset, he has dug deeper into his own well of confidence.

Speaking to Claire B. Lang, Zane Smith opened up about beating Ty Gibbs. He went on to say, “And yeah, you know Ty’s gonna be fast down in Sonoma. He has a great car, and yeah, he’s shown a lot of speed on road courses. And if it wasn’t Ty, I think it was AJ Allmendinger. So obviously AJ ain’t too bad either about lefts and rights. So yeah, just, it’s another challenge. Just try to execute a better weekend than they do, and see if we advance. And then we’re, I think, on to four.”

For Ty Gibbs, the 2025 season has been one of rebirth and potential. The 22-year-old scion of Joe Gibbs Racing has yet to crack Victory Lane in the Cup series this year, but with three top tens and nearly a hundred laps led, he is finding his form, especially on road courses. His runner-up in Chicago marked a season best and showcased renewed competitiveness. Gibbs ran strong on the restart and blasted past road course specialists like AJ Allmendinger.

The 2022 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Champion admits that he’ll track Gibbs’ progress as the race unfolds. He says, “I don’t wanna speak for Ty, but I feel like we’re both in the boat as of today of, ‘hey, we’re going to Sonoma to try to win the race and advance in the playoffs.’ We’re real close together in points. And yeah, with that, we’re focused on having a good day, but our weekends are gonna shape out. We’re different things, different kinds of adversity is gonna be thrown at us.”

Still, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s standing remains precarious. 21st in points, 255 points shy of the lead and nursing two DNFs across 19 starts. While bracketed as the challenge’s No. 6 seed, his cup season’s inconsistencies mean this challenge isn’t just about the prize money; it is a rare shot at a signature weekend that could elevate his season and newfound confidence. As the pair prepares for seat time in Northern California, each knows the stakes: more than $1 million payout, this is a fight for postseason relevance and a chance to claim a bold, early-season statement.

NASCAR bettors say Ty Gibbs is more favourable for the In-Season Challenge

As the field narrows in NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge, Ty Gibbs is quickly becoming the name to beat, and the sportsbooks agree. With the next elimination round set for Dover, DraftKings Sportsbook has listed the Joe Gibbs Racing driver as the clear frontrunner to claim the coveted $1 million prize. Gibbs’ odds currently sit at -330, reflecting a significant edge over his remaining challengers, including underdog rival Zane Smith.

The 2025 season has been full of headline moments, from Shane van Gisbergen’s historic Chicago double to the chaos of the All-Star race, but nothing has captured fans’ attention quite like the million-dollar bracket. With top contenders like Tyler Reddick, Justin Haley, and Alex Bowman already eliminated due to crashes or mechanical failures, the field has thinned into an unpredictable, high-stakes sprint. And yet, Gibbs remains standing, stronger than ever.

The buzz around the bracket intensified as NASCAR’s official social channels highlighted the updated betting odds, triggering a wave of fan commentary. Some celebrated Gibbs in a sentence, while others saw it as fuel for the ongoing speculation around his fast-tracked rise through the ranks. Either way, the numbers don’t lie. With consistent performances and a relatively clear run so far, Gibbs is statistically the most likely to come out on top at Dover.

The heart of it all is the $1 million prize, a game-changing sum that has already been awarded once to Christopher Bell, the All-Star race winner. For the rest still in the hunt, the In-Season Challenge presents both glory and pressure, with each race functioning as a knockout blow. For Gibbs, it’s a chance to prove that he is more than just the grandson of a Hall of Famer; it’s an opportunity to own the moment. But for every favorite the bracket has claimed so far, one truth has held steady: no lead is safe, no outcome is guaranteed. And with Zane Smith lurking as a potential spoiler, the story is far from over.