Denny Hamlin is not the same after the 2025 season. From nearly winning his long-awaited title, the Joe Gibbs Racing star faced huge roadblocks in his life one after another. Coming into 2026, industry experts are discussing why betting on Hamlin can be a bad gamble, especially due to one major reason among others.

Why you shouldn’t place your bets on Denny

Kevin Redfern, a sports arbiter, recently had an interview with PRN Live, where he highlighted why Denny Hamlin is no longer the person to go for in the betting industry.

“Denny Hamlin’s future right now for the Championship is the grinch bet,” Redfern said on X. “You don’t wanna touch that with the ten foot pole, and when it comes to those favorites like I kind of group, that group that you mentioned there, Andrew going down to Chase Briscoe, and Chase Elliott at 10 to 1.”

Denny Hamlin won six races last season and was the hot favorite to win the title. But within the final minutes at Phoenix, he lost it. And then, within weeks, an offseason that was supposed to heal him turned worse with the loss of his father. Dennis Hamlin passed away in a house fire on December 28, 2025, at his home in Gaston County, North Carolina. His mother survived but suffered critical injuries.

Naturally, because of all this, Hamlin’s mental health is clearly the biggest reason to take into consideration while betting on him.

As Redfern put forward Hamlin’s teammate Briscoe, and Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott as the names to go for, he mentioned how the future bets are set to get placed.

“I love the value in that section and I think that a lot of people who are analyzing future bets are going to as well. Anything below 10 to 1 on a future, just think about the range of prices where that could go if you’re talking about this strategy like it just can’t get that much more sharp,” he added.

Also, there are secondary factors too. While the Chase’s comeback is supposed to help everyone do better than the playoffs, it could again be sort of a gamble for Hamlin. Unlike others, like Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, or Chase Elliott, who are generally more consistent, Hamlin’s performance often goes to extremes. It’s too volatile.

And if that wasn’t enough, the #11 driver’s old shoulder injury recently got triggered in December, for which he won’t undergo surgery and plans to go through his season carrying it.

Despite this, Hamlin participated in the Clash and is set to continue racing in 2026.

NASCAR insider reckoned Denny Hamlin’s Clash effort despite injury

Hamlin has decided to postpone his surgery to November this year to avoid being sidelined and continue racing. The 23XI Racing co-owner lived up to his name and raced in the recently concluded Cookout Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium. This left Ryan Flores and Corey LaJoie surprised, who discussed Hamlin in their Stacking Pennies podcast.

“Just to hear what he went through, like, so for context, watching, if you didn’t get to watch the Clash, Denny had gotten shoulder surgery a couple years ago,” Flores said.

“And man, talk about somebody that’s just gone through it personally. He fell when he was going through the debris and the fire that he lost his father in. Yeah. And reinjured his shoulder. Yeah. He said there was no bright lights of his off seasons. He said it was just absolutely brutal.”

Denny Hamlin will continue his stint with Joe Gibbs Racing and drive the #11 Toyota Camry XSE under full-time obligation. His teammates for the 2026 season will remain the same — Chase Briscoe in the #17 car, Christopher Bell in the #20 car, and Ty Gibbs in the #54 car.