With the Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway drawing to a close the first race of the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12, Team Penske drivers Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano demonstrated their power by getting good results. In the meantime, 23XI Racing has gone through a situation of polar opposites, as both of its playoff competitors, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace, have had to deal with some unforeseen difficulties. Reddick began in fourth, but had problems with the brakes, and Wallace struggled with handling problems early. This single game threw the script on their postseason hopes, and how rapidly the dynamics of the playoffs may change.

At the start of the playoff 12, Wallace was fourth with a +50 cushion, and Reddick was seventh, having earned it with good efforts in the Round of 16, such as the P6 finish of Wallace at Darlington and Reddick’s P2 at Darlington. However, after the Loudon race, Reddick fell to 11th with -23 points and Wallace to 12th with -27 points, both finishing outside the top 20. Wallace labeled it “the longest day I’ve had in a race car in a long time,” highlighting the team’s surprise at lacking speed. With Kansas next, where 23XI boasts three of its nine total Cup wins, the pressure mounts, setting up a pivotal moment.

Tyler Reddick Faces the Harsh Truth

On the 23rd September episode of the Door Bumper Clear podcast, Freddie Kraft, the spotter of Bubba Wallace, did not hold back on how poor the situation of 23XI Racing was following New Hampshire, saying, “No, we’ll say, ‘Yeah, we are in must-win.'” This confession followed a talk of the playoff plague of the team, in which what had been a promising Round of 16, with Wallace continuing to post top-10s at such tracks as Darlington and Gateway, turned into a withering form.

The decline was compounded by poor Bristol finishes (Reddick 15th, Wallace 34th) before the disaster at New Hampshire, where the two were below the cutline. The bitterness that points recovery is not easy is manifested by Kraft having to play the must-win game, because recovering points so far requires Roval to make the strategy sacrifices, in the form of sacrificing stages to the overall position, as experienced in previous races where the pursuit of points sacrifices finishes.

Tyler Reddick was not in harmony with the tension but admitted a pessimistic view by stating that, “I think it’s very possible that leaving Kansas, one of us will be. Meaning, you know, for one to have a good day and close the gap, the other can’t have as good of a day.” This underscores the internal affinity of the team: in Kansas, where Reddick and Wallace both won in 2023 and 2022, respectively, one good performance could propel one driver and leave the other vulnerable in case the two experience different performances.

Kraft explained the Roval issues; he said, “The roval, I don’t think you could do that because if you’re going to run top three in the race, you’ve probably got to sacrifice stage points.” This supports the gambling game: in 2023, 23XI pursued points at Roval but gave up a potential win, with Kraft remembering their speed being equal to that of AJ Allmendinger winning it, but instead choosing stages, gaining first and second in both, but damaging the result.

But in the case of 2025, this would imply that Kansas is the possible shot, as Reddick won there in 2023 to advance to the playoffs, which further supports this point, and the overlay of Roval makes it less predictable, such as the infield hairpin. Worst at Kansas? The same would happen again, with one in the top three and the other in the middle of the pack, wiping out the trailer, particularly should any of its competitors, such as Austin Cindric (-19), strike.

However, in the darkness, 23XI co-owner Denny Hamlin counterbalances the panic with a more consistent perspective on their way ahead.

Hamlin downplays must-win label to 23XI duo

Denny Hamlin, cogitating about the problems of the 23XI in New Hampshire, identified the problems of execution, saying, “It seemed like wherever we were, they were ten spots behind. If we were mediocre, they were below mediocre. Just didn’t have the speed, didn’t have the handling. Not good.”

The basis of this criticism is that his personal No. 11 Toyota was capable of performing in the race, unlike the Toyotas of 23XI, which were not competitive, as Wallace and Reddick moaned of balance problems. The power of Hamlin in this instance is his twofold position as a driver with five 2025 victories and an owner, and the fact that alliance data of Joe Gibbs Racing has failed to translate here, as it had previously worked over the past seasons.

Nevertheless, Hamlin rejects the must-win label, saying, “Must-win is when you’re below 30 points out going into the last race. With two races to go, there’s too much other stuff that can happen. You can go out and have yourself a 50-point day at Kansas, and next thing you know, I bet you’re going to be minus five, maybe flat. This optimism is based on Kansas’s potential; his team has been recording top tens consistently, implying a max-effort day—top-three stages and a win could vaporize deficits. In the case of Reddick and Wallace, it would be the execution rather than desperation.

The position taken by Hamlin promotes attention, where the format is volatile enough to reverse without victory, much like his 2024 playoff navigation through points despite no Round of 12 win. With off-track tensions like the charter lawsuit against NASCAR adding strain, his words aim to steady the ship, reminding them that New Hampshire’s outlier doesn’t doom them if Kansas delivers.