This weekend’s race at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is huge for local hero Daniel Suarez. Not just because he will race in the first points-paying race outside the USA since 1958, but this is likely to be his best shot to advance into the playoffs. Hometown support, backed by a team like Trackhouse Racing, this is his chance to make his case for his future riding the #99 Chevy. Remember, he is on his contract year, and there’s a lot of noise surrounding his future within the team beyond 2025.

Last year, he was able to sign an extension after that thrilling photo finish at Atlanta, and that was enough to secure his spot in the playoffs. But the situation is grim this year. After 15 regular-season races this year, the Trackhouse Racing driver has drawn blanks, and it has been almost 50 races since Suarez has been to victory lane. And, this race in Mexico could be the key to securing his ride, and the driver knows that. “The Mexico race is something that I’ve been hoping and waiting on for many, many years, and I’m not going to let anything else from outside take that week and that moment from myself,” Suarez said.

He might be the favorite due to his Mexican roots, but he isn’t a road course ringer. Yeah, he has a win at Sonoma Raceway from 2022, but he hasn’t replicated that success since. In the Next Gen era, he hasn’t finished inside the top 20 spot at COTA, same can be said for Watkins Glen, apart from the solo top 5 result he had back in 2022. Meanwhile, in the two Chicago Street races, he hasn’t been able to crack the top 10 finishes. So, there is a genuine concern surrounding his ability to deliver the goods, especially in a race where all eyes will be on him.

This conversation was further fueled by a fan comment on Reddit, “Realistically, how good of a shot does Daniel Suarez has to win in Mexico City?” In an event where the likes of Chris Buescher, Shane van Gisbergen, Tyler Reddick, and A. J. Allmendinger are on the hunt for their first win, this question raises a genuine question about Suarez’s chances in Mexico. And while the energy and spirits are on a high for the 33-year-old, fans on social media didn’t sugarcoat when they chimed in on this discussion.

Fans skeptical about Daniel Suarez’s chances to win in Mexico

“I say at least 8 who have better shots, Buescher, Elliott, Reddick, Bell, Cindric, Allmendinger, McDowell, Byron. And then maybe Suarez? But Bowman and Chastain are also contenders on road courses. Way more drivers who have a shot to win on a non-oval than in the past.” This reaction highlights the depth of competition on road courses and invites comparison via concrete season metrics beyond what we covered in the intro. Buescher won last year at Watkins Glen, and Allmendinger has kept Kaulig Racing in contention with his wins at ROA and Brickyard. Bowman, who himself is in the hot seat, won the Chicago race last year. So, there are big hitters who are in a similar situation as Suarez and equally hungry to make the most of this wildcard event.

One comment reflects fan concerns about Suarez’s consistency under pressure and the unforgiving nature of any technical circuit. “I love Daniel, but his chances can’t be that much better than usual. I’d love to be wrong but he’s still been missing that closing ability to get up front and stay up front. If he can manage to not wreck on a lapper or spin himself out I’d say a top 10 makes sense, maybe a top 5.” And the data sheet does back this narrative and paints a realistic picture about Saurez’s chances in Mexico.

Four DNFs, 14 laps led, and often mired in crashed and wrecks, the driver of the #99 car has an average finish of 21.133. While Trackhouse Racing itself had a slump, they bounced back with that Ross Chastain win at the Coca-Cola 600. That P2 finish at Vegas looks like a big result, but that was a lucky break in a race that was decided on strategy. Two top 10s apart from that single big result isn’t going to cut it, and only a win can help him rise from 28th position in the playoffs standings.

“1 in a million. Dude is average Cup-level driver at best” and “0.0% with how his season is going.” Suarez has three wins at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, but that was back when he was racing in the Mexico NASCAR Series. Now that he is up against the best stock car racers in the world, the stakes are higher than ever before. And the uncertainty over his future and the silly season rumors are only going to make his job harder.

Some fans even predicted that Suarez will be replaced by Connor Zilisch in the JR Motorsports Chevy next year. “Oh ok cool thank you, hopefully he can run well in that equipment, JR motorsports is equally as good as any team out there I think. I’d actually like to see Suarez run well, he may even be auditioning for a job in the xfinity series next season who knows.” Zilisch is signed to Trackhouse Racing, so this isn’t a random theory. Imagine the teenager winning his race, while Suarez end up with a top 10. That could tilt the scales in favor of Zilisch.

What are your thoughts about Daniel Suarez and his chances to win in Mexico City?