With four races left in the NASCAR Cup Series Chase, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin have dominated the championship conversation. But the points gap tells only part of the story. Christopher Bell has finished second eight times this season, including a heartbreaking photo finish at Charlotte, yet his speed across different track types keeps him firmly in contention. Now, one NASCAR insider believes the frustrated Joe Gibbs Racing star has the right combination of consistency and track-specific potential to turn those near-misses into a championship run.

“I just feel like, you look at Phoenix next, you look at Talladega after that, then Martinsville, then Homestead. I feel like at Phoenix and at Homestead specifically, Christopher Bell can really go a long way in winning stages and winning those two races, and I think that could be enough to propel him toward the championship,” NASCAR.com’s Zach Sturniolo said.

Sturniolo’s pick contrasts with Larson’s current points lead, positioning Bell as a dark-horse contender rather than the favorite. Currently Kyle Larson is leading the Chase standings and Denny Hamlin also in contention. But Bell has shown he can challenge across different track types and racing packages. Despite sitting 51 points behind Larson after Charlotte, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver remains third in the standings, ahead of teammate Chase Briscoe.

Sturniolo’s argument starts with Phoenix, where Bell has two Cup Series victories and five top-10 finishes in the last seven starts. His most recent visit in March 2026 offered a reminder of both his speed and his frustration. Bell led 176 laps, won Stage 2 and looked capable of securing another victory, only for late cautions and a two-tire strategy by Ryan Blaney’s team to change the outcome. Bell finished second, missing his third consecutive spring win at the track by 0.399 seconds.

Homestead offers another reason to take Bell seriously. He won there in 2023, demonstrating that he can handle the track’s unusual banking and the tire management required around its abrasive surface. His recent record is not flawless, though: Bell finished 29th in the 2025 race. That result is a reminder that past success does not guarantee another strong run, but his victory gives him a foundation to build on.

Bell’s season has been defined by that exact gap between performance and results. Before Charlotte, he had recorded seven runner-up finishes, tying Harry Gant’s 1981 mark for the most second places in a winless Cup season. Then came another near-miss at Charlotte, where Bell led 93 laps but finished just 0.029 seconds behind Briscoe. He now has eight second-place finishes in 2026, a remarkable tally for a driver who has struggled to turn speed into wins.

The frustration has been evident in Bell’s own words. After his runner-up finish at Iowa, he said, “This is what you call a bad second-place finish.” Charlotte brought a similar disappointment. “It doesn’t do any good in the grand scheme of things. I came in negative-55 (to Larson), and I’m leaving negative-51. So that ain’t gonna do it,” Bell said, explaining why another strong result was not enough to change his championship position significantly.

Larson, the man to beat, has shown what Bell needs to produce to stay in the championship fight. His 76-point haul at Kansas highlighted the value of a dominant weekend, while his consistency in collecting stage points has helped him build and protect his advantage. Bell needs to replicate that combination of stage points and race wins if he hopes to close the gap with just four races remaining.

Hamlin remains another major obstacle in Bell’s championship path. The veteran JGR driver has the experience to navigate the pressure of a title fight, but Sturniolo pointed out that the No. 11 team has yet to find the winning speed needed to turn its Chase run into a championship push. With Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead presenting four very different challenges, Hamlin will need to produce stronger results while protecting his position in the standings.

Briscoe, meanwhile, has added urgency to the fight by winning at Las Vegas and Charlotte. His Charlotte victory came in a photo finish against Bell, but two wins have not erased the 65-point deficit he must overcome. Sturniolo believes that gap is too large with four races left, especially with Larson, Hamlin and Bell ahead of him and performing on the same level.

Bell’s path depends on converting his speed into wins and stage points at the right moments. Phoenix gives him a proven opportunity, while Homestead offers a track where he has already won. Talladega and Martinsville will demand different approaches, and neither guarantees a points swing.

But if Bell can deliver the kind of dominant performance he has repeatedly shown he is capable of, Sturniolo believes the No. 20 team can make the championship battle far tighter than the current standings suggest.