Pocono Raceway has always been a wildcard, but back in 2016, it became a dreamland for Chris Buescher. The rookie, driving for an underdog team, pulled off one of NASCAR’s most surprising wins. Heavy rain and fog stopped the race with just over 20 laps to go. Buescher wasn’t the fastest car, but he had the guts to stay out while others pitted. He waited in his car, hoping the weather would hold. “I’m trying to remember every rain dance I’ve ever learned,” he said with a laugh, sitting quietly in his No. 34 Ford.

After nearly 80 minutes of waiting, NASCAR called the race. No flashy celebration, just a soaked pit lane and a stunned winner. “This is going to change our whole year right here,” Buescher said. Brad Keselowski, who finished second, praised him: “If I couldn’t win, it was cool to see him win.” That day didn’t just put Buescher on the map. It reminded everyone what Pocono can do, where even the weather writes the story. It was chaos, luck, and guts all rolled into one wet miracle.

Now, almost a decade later, NASCAR returns to Pocono, and so does the threat of another weather twist. Fans and teams are on high alert. Once again, all eyes are on the radar. The forecast looks familiar. Thunderstorms are building. This weekend, the skies may decide who races, who waits, and who never gets their shot.

Mother Nature’s curveball at the Pocono Raceway!

After a historic weekend in Mexico where Shane van Gisbergen smoked the field with a 16-second win, NASCAR returns to the States. The spotlight shifts to Long Pond, Pennsylvania, and Pocono’s unique three-turn challenge. But the headlines are already about the sky, not the track. Just hours before Sunday’s scheduled race, Pocono Raceway tweeted, “WEATHER ALERT: Be aware there is a threat of a thunderstorm, including lightning, for this area. Please clear the grandstands and find appropriate shelter.” It’s not just a warning, it’s a disruption.

A follow-up from the track brought worse news. “There is a continued threat of a thunderstorm, including lightning, for this area. Please remain sheltered. Fan Stage and Victory Lane Stage Q&A Sessions are canceled,” the message read. For fans on site, that was a gut punch. Those events are part of the weekend experience. Instead, they’re being told to stay sheltered. As of now, there’s no guarantee the race will go green on time. Bob Pockrass from FOX says, “Three hours before scheduled green flag at Pocono. Would probably need the rain to stop by 12:30p ET for a chance at on-time start. Do have time to wait it out as likely can race to around 8:30.”

That window is tight given there’s no backup plan at Pocono when it rains. The track has no lights. There are no rain tires. If the sky doesn’t clear, they don’t race. “No lights and no rain tires for Pocono. Would think rain would have to stop by 3ish to be able to race, so still a little early to tell depending on what/if anything builds behind this,” he added. NASCAR could push the race to Monday, but that would be a massive letdown for the sold-out crowd. With only nine regular-season races left, each point matters. Each lap counts. No one wants to lose a race to the weather.

As of now, the forecast for the next few hours isn’t promising. According to weather.com, at 2 p.m., heavy thunderstorms with a 71% chance of rain loom over the track. Winds are coming in at 10 mph, and humidity is suffocating at 84%. Rain amounts are expected to hit a third of an inch. The radar shows isolated storms building and possibly moving across the region until 3 p.m. After that, the skies may ease, with the rain chance dropping to just 15% by 4 p.m. and 13% by 6 p.m. That’s the window NASCAR hopes for. Still, with the lightning threat, it’s not only about moisture. It’s about safety.

So, where does that leave us? Hope. Waiting. Maybe both. NASCAR will do everything possible to get this race in on Sunday. If not, Monday afternoon becomes the backup, which has a far better forecast than Sunday. For now, the drivers are ready, and the field is set as qualifying was dramatic. Denny Hamlin took the pole, with Chris Buescher right beside him in the front row. That’s a battle worth waiting for. If the weather allows, it’s going to be a good one.

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Who will shine at the Tricky Triangle?

Qualifying at Pocono delivered surprises and excitement. Denny Hamlin claimed pole position with a lap of 52.144 seconds after returning to the No.11 team. Notably, he had missed the Mexico City race to be with his wife at the birth of their third child. Meanwhile, Chris Buescher will start second, fresh off an impressive run of form. In third position, Carson Hocevar will take the field as he awaits a massive revenge from Ricky Stenhouse Jr, as they had two incidents in the last three weeks, including one in Mexico City.

Further back, some big names face challenges. William Byron starts 31st after a hard crash in Turn 2 during qualifying. He’ll either repair or go to a backup car. Bubba Wallace didn’t even get on track for a qualifying lap, facing technical issues. He will start at the tail end of the field along with Cody Ware, Brennan Poole, and Josh Berry. The favorites to win include Denny Hamlin, who thrives at Pocono. He’s been strong on flat, intermediate tracks this season.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has seven wins at the iconic track, including eight top-10 finishes in the last ten races. He will start on pole and will be racing for his newly born son. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and William Byron also top the contenders list. Byron hasn’t won at Pocono but has three top-five finishes and the best average finish among active drivers here. Despite starting deep, he’s one to watch. Dark horse picks include Chris Buescher, who’s shown he can handle both the weather and the track. Who can forget his 2016 heroics?