Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin’s star driver, Bubba Wallace, recently silenced the naysayers, including the legendary Kyle Petty, who never chalked him up in their esteemed top-12. Not only did Wallace carve out a spot among the elite 12, but by leaving some of the cream of the crop in his rearview mirror, he truly raised the bar for his peers.

But is the buzz around him really worth its salt? Given the 2023 playoff average finishes, the jury’s still out. It appears there are other hotshots, including the likes of Jimmie Johnson‘s driver, who might be a better bang for the buck than Bubba Wallace, roughly in the same position as the ousted Kevin Harvick.

Is Jimmie Johnson’s wheelman a safer roll of the dice than the ace of Michael Jordan?

With the final showdown at Phoenix Raceway just around the corner and only six races to go, the heat’s being turned up for all the drivers. And in this tensity of a playoff scenario, who can overlook Bubba Wallace? The Michael Jordan protégé was on tenterhooks, teetering on the brink of the playoffs, and made the cut by the skin of his teeth, courtesy of Chris Buescher’s Daytona triumph. Now, sliding into the top 12 without clinching a win is a feather in the cap for the 23XI driver.

However, truth be told, Wallace’s entry into the playoffs feels more like he’s been riding on others’ coattails rather than blazing his own trail. While Team Jordan played their cards right to rack up points and hang in the fray, it’s going to take more than just tallying points and banking on others’ misfortunes to climb the ladder.

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A sneak peek into the average finish stats spilled by NASCAR on Reddit suggests that for NASCAR fans looking for a horse to back, Jimmie Johnson’s prodigy, Carson Hocevar, might be a better bet. Despite dipping his toes into just three races at Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol, his average finish eclipses that of the more playoff-seasoned driver from the team of Michael Jordan, Bubba Wallace. While Wallace’s 17.7 average hovers closely above Kevin Harvick’s 19.7, Hocevar, despite being a part-timer in the Cup Series, boasts a more impressive 16.

And if one needs more convincing, let the tracks do the talking. Up next on the roster is Texas, where Wallace has managed to crack the top 10 just a duo of times and has been stuck behind P16 in the last three races. In contrast, Hocevar’s showing at the Texas Motor Speedway in the Truck Series includes two top-5s and a win in his three outings. Clearly, by the numbers, Hocevar seems to have the upper hand.

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But who knows? In the unpredictable world of NASCAR, where strategy has a role—just recall Matt Kenseth’s 2003 championship win with a lone race victory—maybe Wallace has an ace up his sleeve.

Is Bubba Wallace taking a leaf out of Matt Kenseth’s book?

While Matt Kenseth had the wind in his sails with at least one win and cruised into the rounds riding high on points, his record shines a tad brighter than Wallace’s current standing. Wallace seems to be skating on thin ice, inching forward on points rather than seizing the checkered flag.

Even Denny Hamlin, Wallace’s own head honcho, echoes similar sentiments. Hamlin opined that if Wallace sticks to his current playbook, diving deep into the playoffs won’t be a far-fetched dream.

On his recent podcast, Hamlin dropped this pearl of wisdom, “The round of 12 will be no different than the round of 16. There will still be guys that stub their toe, that have bad days. He is at such a point, he is going to need to finish top-15 every week and finish top-10 in next 2 out of the three. He’s probably going to have to get 30 stage points during this round to make it, which is all feasible.”

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Although Hamlin might not walk the talk himself, he seems to be nudging his own driver down that avenue. And if Wallace manages to carve out a path forward using this strategy, it might be a wake-up call for others to zero in on racking up stage points rather than gunning solely for the win.